My Top Ten NFL Prospects of 2009

Below is my personal top 10 offensive NFL prospects list. My rankings are based strictly on how I believe they will do at the next level regardless of what they have achieved in college. This is ranking number 1 of two rankings I will do. This is the initial one based purely on talent. The second ranking will be after the actual draft in April once I see what team, coach, and system they will be playing in. I also have fantasy football in mind as I rank them.

1. Matthew Stafford (QB) Georgia- Stafford is ready for the pro game. He has battled some consistency issues throughout his career but he has the same qualities in him that Matt Ryan had at BC. Stafford looks the part and did it in a pro style offense. He may not be as good as Ryan but it’s close. He’ll be playing with one of the best wide outs in the game in Calvin Johnson, assuming that the Detroit Lions don’t make a huge mistake and pass him up.

2. LeSean McCoy (RB) Pittsburgh- While all the draft experts currently have McCoy ranked near the bottom of the first round, and as the 3rd best RB, I view him as the best RB available in the draft. At 5’10” 205 he has a pro RB frame. He looks like he could even fill out a little more too.

3. Jeremy Maclin (WR) Missouri- Crabtree is at the top of everyone’s draft lists at WR. I think that Maclin is THE premier WR that is entering the draft and will have the most immediate impact. Maclin will be an outstanding punt returner as well.

4. Mark Sanchez (QB) USC- Sanchez is going to be a solid pro. He has no real weaknesses but I think he needs to be parked the first year or two before he can assume control of a team. Aaron Rodgers type career path comes to mind if I were drafting him.

5. Michael Crabtree (WR) Texas Tech- I hate to drop him this low but I can’t help it. The eye tells me that he should succeed at the next level but my gut tells me something else. He’ll be solid but I just don’t see him being a dominant type WR at the pro level. I am prepared to be wrong on this one because, like I said, is just a gut feeling.

6. Percy Harvin (WR) Florida- Let me throw out a few names…Taylor Jacobs, Jacquez Green, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, and Chad Jackson. Those are all former Florida Gator WRs who dominated in that gimmicky spread offense they run there. None have amounted to anything at the next level other than being mediocre at best WRs. The only thing I can say about Harvin is he seems to have a different gear and seems to be the fastest player on the field. I don’t trust any WR out of that system and history backs that assessment up. I won’t say Harvin won’t succeed but you can’t ignore the facts either. His game reminds me of the Eagles' DeShean Jackson. I think it is realistic for his ceiling to be the same as DeShean's.

7. Knowshon Moreno (RB) Georgia- If you like Cadillac Williams you’re going to like Moreno. They are the same mold of RB. Cadillac has battled injuries but there is a reason for that. His body isn’t cut out to take the pounding it takes to tote the rock at the next level as a primary RB. Moreno, in the right system, can be successful. If he goes to a two RB system he will have some value.

8. Hakeem Nicks (WR) North Carolina- He put himself into the national scene because he had an outstanding bowl game. He had a breakout game at the right time with a 200 yd plus game. He also will probably get an ESPY for best catch of the year. Regardless he has the tools and playmaking ability to make some noise at the next level.

9. Chris Wells (RB) Ohio State- I’m just going to say it. I am no fan of Chris Wells. I think he is overrated and is a decent power RB. I don’t see him amounting to much at the next level. I don’t see what the scouts see in him for him to be a first round pick AND to be rated higher than McCoy. We’ll see.

10. Brandon Tate (WR) North Carolina- Tate is my wildcard. He had season ending knee injury and surgery early in the season. You probably won’t hear much from him given that he will probably get drafted in round 3 or 4 but I can tell you the only reason for that is due to injury. I thought he was the best WR in the draft before the injury. He is expected to be 100% around April. Not sure if you’ll see him in the combine either. He has amazing hands. He’s big and fast. This is the guy I am rooting for my Dolphins to take in round 3 or 4 to give us a legit big body WR. He will be a risk due to the knee but at round 3 or 4 he will be worth it. FYI his college coach, Butch Davis, said that both Michael Irvin and Reggie Wayne had the same knee injury. They turned out fine didn’t they?

Spread Offense = NFL BUSTS

I just want to write something really quick before I post my top 10 NFL offensive prospects of 2009. I’ve wanted to write about this for a while but I just didn’t know what to say about it other than the spread offense sucks. But really the spread offenses that more and more college teams are running delay or ruin the development of some of the best prospects in the game. Yes, they put up good numbers and looks fun, but in terms of getting these guys ready for the NFL it is horrible. The kids just aren’t ready for the next level. They are used to that “fast break”, shotgun offense and don’t really learn anything. It’s very gimmicky and does a big disservice to these kids. That’s why when I see draft experts rank Sam Bradford the number 1 QB I want to personally throw a flag at them.

Bradford decided to go back to school so it’s a moot point this year but that’s precisely why I still had Matthew Stafford ranked as the number 1 guy in my book over Bradford. Bradford may turn out to be a good pro but he’ll have to dump a lot of bad habits to make the jump. Stafford is more NFL ready.

The spread also hurts WRs. They never learn to run routes and their numbers are also skewed. I want to love WR Michael Crabtree because his talent seems unstoppable but I’ve been burned one too many times for believing the transition will be smooth. Crabtree is another product of the fast break offense of Texas Tech. Could he make a smooth transition? Yes. He’s tall and fast and on the surface looks like a can’t miss. But just off the top of my head, Redskins WR Malcom Kelly (Oklahoma) had similar credentials as Crabtree. Yes he battled injuries in his rookie year but he also struggled big time running routes. I was a big fan of Kelly’s and got burned. To Crabtree’s credit he is actually a better athlete than Kelly but I still remain skeptical. You know the old saying…fool me once….

That’s just a little bit of info I wanted to layout before I put out my rankings. I’ve been doing research for about 3 weeks and am almost ready to post the results of my top ten. If all goes as planned, expect the post to be up sometimes Saturday.

Rivals or ESPN

With national signing day just around the corner (February 4th) I thought it would be fun to look back a few years and see how the top two websites have done in their rankings of highschool prospects. I’m going to look back from 2002 to present. The two main recruiting sites are Rivals.com and of course ESPN. The idea is to see how credible they are and the best way to grade them is to see how they have done in the past. So let’s review:

Rivals 2002
1. QB Vincent Young- Tennessee Titans 1st round pick
2. DT Hiloti Ngata- Baltimore Ravens 1st round pick

ESPN 2002
1. QB Ben Olson- Bust
2. RB Maurice Clarett- Jail?

Rivals 2003
1. LB Ernie Sims- Detroit Lions 1st round pick
2. RB Reggie Bush- New Orleans Saints 1st round pick

ESPN 2003
1. QB Chris Leak- Not drafted but had great college career at UF
2. QB Kyle Wright- Not drafted and was a bust at UM

Rivals 2004
1. RB Adrian Peterson- Minnesota Vikings 1st round pick and arguably best RB in the NFL
2. Tedd Ginn Jr.- Miami Dolphins 1st round pick

ESPN 2004
Couldn’t find

Rivals 2005
1. WR Derrick Williams- Projected as 2nd round pick in 2009 draft
2. WR Patrick Turner- He was a USC WR and is a Senior Bowl invitee for 2009

ESPN 2005
Couldn’t find

Rivals 2006
1. WR Percy Harvin- Has entered 2009 draft and is projected 1st round pick
2. OT Andre Smith- Has entered 2009 draft and is projected top 5 pick

ESPN 2006
1. S Myron Rolle- Would be 1st round pick if he entered but is accepting Rhodes scholarship in 2009- translation, the dude has a really high IQ
2. Percy Harvin- See above

Rivals 2007
1. QB Jimmy Clausen- Currently starting QB for Notre Dame
2. RB Joe McKnight- Currently starting RB for USC
ESPN 2007
1. RB Joe McKnight- See above
2. LB Chris Galippo- Still playing at USC and will be RS junior in 2009

Rivals 2008
1. QB Terrelle Pryor- Has made an immediate impact at Penn St as starting QB in his freshman year
2. DE DaQuan Bowers- Too soon to tell

ESPN 2008
1. DaQuan Bowers- Too soon to tell
2. Julio Jones- Looks to be the real deal and future NFL 1st round pick

So it looks to me that ESPN has some catching up to do but they also have partnered up with Scouts Inc since 2006 and their rankings seem to have improved. But Rivals has been pretty consistent the whole time. This year’s top two players are:

Rivals 2009
1. RB Bryce Brown- In my opinion Bryce Brown is the second coming of Adrian Peterson. He is a current University of Miami commit but has said right now he is leaning to Oregon. Regardless of who he plays for keep track of this guy because he will be playing on Sundays in 3 years.

2. WR Rueben Randle- There is a lot of buzz about Randle like it was last year about Julio Jones. Right now he remains undecided. His top 5 considerations are Alabama (yikes him and Julio Jones on same team), LSU, Miami, Ole Miss, & Oklahoma.

ESPN 2009
1. QB Matt Barkley- He looked impressive in the US Army high school all star game. He’s going to USC and seems to be the same mold of QB that has been at USC for the past decade.
2. LB Manti Te’ O- I honestly don’t know a lot about this kid other than he is from Hawaii and he is undecided to where he’s going to school.

BCS Title Game

It's been slow on the blogging lately but I have not quit. I just haven't really had anything that I felt I wanted to write about lately. I'm enjoying the NFL playoffs so far and we just completed the BCS title game. Speaking of the BCS title game, it didn't feel like a championship game. It felt like another big bowl game. It was a good game and two very good teams played. We all know the flaws. USC and Texas deserved to have a chance at the title but it didn't turn out that way. What are you going to do? I can't say I feel bad for either school because Miami has been hosed by the system before as well. I will not have any sympathy for Utah either. If you want to play for a title and you play in a small conference you HAVE to schedule at least 1 or 2 nonconference tough opponents. The Utes didn't make an argument until they beat Bama in the big bowl game. That's too late. If they had beaten a top team, like all the other schools did they would have had an argument. The thing is when undefeated Hawaii got embarrassed by Georgia last year it showed why an undefeated record is not enough. You have to be tested in the regular season. But Utah wants the best of both worlds. They want a cupcake schedule and they want to be thought of as a title contender. I don't think it's fair to the other schools that have a tough road to get there. Either way, the current system is going to screw at least one school every year, and like this year, sometimes several schools. It's about money and CFB is doing very well. They don't have enough incentive to change. Until they are not pleased with revenue it will not change.


NFL Draft:
Sometimes this month I will break down the top 10 draft prospects on the offensive side. I can’t do it right now because we are still waiting to get all the underclassmen to announce their declaration. I think they have another week until the deadline. Once the deadline passes I will break it down. Then after the draft I will do another breakdown based on what teams take them.