NFL Draft and the Number 1 Pick

With one big game left to play, Super Bowl XLII, the NFL draft is lurking less than 3 months away. It's already being discussed by "draft experts" and the media. And if they can do it, then I guess it's time for me to give you my take on it. These "experts" will flip flop their boards every week, which I never seem to understand why, leading up to draft day. They've seen these guys play in college. They have 3 or 4 years of work and video on them to watch. After all that, they even get to to see most of them in the Senior Bowl up close. Why the flip flop? (And there's my rant of the day).

The Dolphins have the first pick in the upcoming draft. If I could trade the pick I would because of the ungodly amount guaranteed money you have to spend (not to mention dealing with a lengthy holdout you most certainly have to deal with). The Dolphins know this and, of course, try and trade the pick. They know to sign the first pick, you'd have to give the player at least a $60 million deal with about $38 million of it in a guaranteed money. That's w/o ever seeing them in uniform. That's a serious commitment. If you're wrong about the selection, it could set your franchise back 3 to 4 years. Committing that much money (and salary cap space) to a player you've never seen play in your system is just plain crazy, but that is the NFL way. I've complained about it for too many years and it doesn't do any good so I'll leave it there.

Having talked about the crazy money and commitment it takes to sign a top pick, let's look more at trading the pick. Well, every team knows what it's going to take to sign that pick. There is one, and only one, reason that would make a team trade for that pick. They'd have to be in love with a certain player. This year, there is no true prospect who every scout believe to be that clear cut guy. Most "experts" believe the best player in the draft is Darren McFadden. I've written my opinion on McFadden in my very first blog topic so I won't elaborate any more on that subject. The most common guy, the "experts" seem to agree upon going to the Dolphins, is LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.

While I don't doubt Dorsey to be a great NFL pro, I'll argue that no defensive tackle is worth the number 1 pick and that kind of money. You're going to give $60 million to "space taker"? He's not the kind of player who sacks the QB very often. To me, you're basically drafting New England defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. Wilfork is a great football player. Granted, Wilfork will kill your offensive scheme if you don't account for him and he'll draw double teams and wreak havoc on your running game, but very rarely will he sack the QB. That's not his "purpose". Wilfork's purpose, like Dorsey's, is to clog up the middle and be disruptive. He's the kind of guy who the great LBs of the league want on their team. He'll eat up blockers, freeing up the great LBs in this league to make the tackles. Now having said all that, do you know what selection Wilfork was for the Patriots? He was selected in the first round with the 21st overall pick in 2004.

The difference between Dorsey and Wilfork is media hype. That's it. When Wilfork played for the Canes he was on a team of stars. Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow II, Jonathan Vilma, D.J. Williams, and Vernon Carey were all teammates selected before Wilfork in the first round of that 2004 draft. LSU doesn't have those kind of players to take the spotlight off of Dorsey. So Dorsey is benefiting from that standpoint.

I think Dorsey will be a fine pro and a definite early first round pick. I'm not saying he's not valuable. My argument is that he is not a franchise type player. Heck, arguably the greatest defensive tackle to ever play the game (like him or not) is Warren Sapp. Even he wasn't selected until the 12th pick of the first round. Do I need a better argument? I'll even argue that USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is every bit as good as Dorsey. I've seen Ellis play in 2 games this year and he's made more of an impression on me than Dorsey.

I've talked about what I wouldn't do if I had the number one pick. Now let me tell you what I would do. In my opinion there are 3 things to have in order to be a successful organization consistently. 1st, you need a QB. The Dolphins do not have one. John Beck is probably not the answer. He's adequate at best. Adequate doesn't win you championships, unless you're really good at the other two winning components. 2nd, you need an offensive line to protect your precious QB, and there's not a more important cornerstone for an O-line than the left tackle. 3rd, you need a great pass rusher or two. There's not a better defense than one who can rush the passer. You think the New York Giants are in the Super Bowl because of Eli Manning, like the flip flopping media is talking about? No, Eli just didn't mess it up. It was the NFL's leading sack unit that got them there. Eli suddenly didn't become Peyton Manning. A great pass rush will even eliminate your weaknesses in your defensive secondary. The Giants don't have any "shutdown" corners. What they have is an awesome pass rush coming from the defensive line.

Having giving you my opinion for building a great football team, let's get back to the draft. You know Dorsey is out. You know McFadden is out. Who's left you say? Here are the 3 guys I'm choosing between and in order, Boston College QB Matt Ryan, Michigan OT Jake Long, and Virginia DE (son of former NFL great pass rusher Howie Long) Chris Long. Those are my top 3 picks in the draft.

This past year, Ryan's senior year, he threw for 4,507 yards, 31 TDs, and 19 Int. Those may not be eye popping numbers but keep in mind that Boston College has almost no NFL prospects on their offense. Even big college football fans can't name one other player that plays offense on BC. I know I can't without looking it up. Another plus is he didn't play in an offensive system that is known to put up big stats. Did you know that Tom Brady threw for 2,217 yards, 16 TDs and 6 Ints in his senior season at Michigan? Not to say that Ryan will be Tom Brady. All I'm trying to say is that Brady didn't play on a team known to have their QBs put up big numbers. The spread offenses that almost every college team runs now days makes it harder to identify a true QB. But, I can tell you that BC is not known for running a spread offense. Another point I want to make about Ryan is had he played for USC, for example, everyone would be foaming at the mouth that he's the next great QB and no way would he not be drafted at the number 1 slot. It's the truth.

Going along with my formula for success, Jake Long would be the next best choice. He's the kind of left tackle that will be playing 10-12 years and will protect your QB for a long time. The argument for taking Jake at number 1 over Ryan is that it's harder to miss with good offensive tackles. Let's do a little draft review of the first offensive tackles taken off the draft board other than me just telling you. 2007: Cleveland Browns took Joe Thomas with the 3rd pick (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). 2006: The NY Jets took D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the 4th pick, still the starter. In 2005 New Orleans Saints took Jammal Brown with the 13th pick (selected to 2006 Pro Bowl). In 2004 the Oakland Raiders took Robert Gallery with the second pick, starter but is considered a failed pick and has since been moved to offensive guard. In 2003, Carolina Panthers selected JORDAN GROSS with the 8th pick, still a starter. In 2002, the Buffalo Bills selected Mike D. Williams, who is no longer on the team and is considered a bust. In 2001 the Arizona Cardinals selected Leonard Davis, who signed with the Cowboys in 2007 (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). You see. Only one bust out of the last 6 drafts. That's good odds. So The Dolphins can play it safe and take Jake Long and it wouldn't be a bad choice. Chances are he'll be the staple of the line for years to come.

The 3rd player, according to my formula, is Chris Long. He played for a Virginia defensive scheme that is not designed to get great sack numbers from individuals but yet he still finished his senior season with 14 sacks. Chris Long is a can't miss prospect. He's got the bloodlines and the numbers. He's been in the NFL world his whole life because of his dad. Howie Long, I have no doubt, has taught him how to be a professional. He's been taught right and he's a gifted pass rusher. If by chance the Dolphins select Chris Long, he will make current Dolphin's DE Jason Taylor's job that much easier and the Dolphins defense better instantly.

It all boils down to this for Dolphin GM Jeff Ireland and VP Bill Parcells. If you want the safe picks, it will be either Jake Long or Chris Long. If you want a "probable" franchise QB, you'd have to take Matt Ryan. Either way those picks are winners in my book and worth the kind of money you'd have to pay them. If they believe in John Beck, then it's time to choose between the Longs. If not, you have to take Matt Ryan. There you have it. It's that easy. Now if I only had Bill's phone number.



Super Bowl XLII prediction: Patriots beat the Giants 28-24 in the highest TV rated Super Bowl in history.

Derrick Rose - Joey Dorsey - The NBA

The current NCAA number 1 team, the Memphis Tigers, has several NBA prospects on their team. Of the future NBA players on the team, I want to discuss the only two players who will actually stick around in the NBA. Those two players are Derrick Rose and Joey Dorsey. The Tigers have other player that will play in the NBA, but these two players, to me, will be the only legitimate household (NBA watchers) names.

Memphis has sent many players to the NBA in recent years, but none were "can't miss" prospects in my opinion. For example, Shawne Williams (1st round pick), Rodney Carney (1st round pick), and Darius Washington (undrafted free agent) are recent Tigers who are currently playing in the NBA. They were all considered superstars for the Tigers, but none have actually translated into legitimate players in the NBA.

The reason I'm singling out Derrick Rose and Joey Dorsey is because I honestly have no doubt these guys are future big name NBA ballers. I have current NBA players in mind that these players careers will mirror. I haven't watched a whole lot of college basketball this year except for a few Tiger games so I don't know what the game announcers are saying. All I know is what I see. And as I've stated in my blog before I feel as if I have an eye for projecting talent to the next level. I'm going to compare these two players into what I see their NBA careers to be like.



First, I'm going to talk about Joey Dorsey. He stands at 6' 9", 260 lbs. The current NBA player who I see him becoming is current Chicago Bulls player Ben Wallace . Wallace is also listed at 6' 9" (although he's probably closer to 6' 7") but he's a little lighter, weighing 240 lbs. Dorsey, to me, is actually more of a physical player than Wallace. Wallace is, what most NBA experts consider to be, a very physical player. Wallace, in his prime, was considered one of the best rebounding and shot blocking forces in the NBA. He was very athletic and and a unique player. I see Dorsey being that same type player. The only thing that will hold Dorsey back from becoming the next Ben Wallace is his tendency to get into foul trouble. Dorsey is more physically gifted than Wallace (that's saying a lot) but I question his basketball IQ. At any rate, Dorsey will stick around in the NBA because his physical gifts are good enough to overcome his short comings. There are great coaches in the NBA that can teach him. That's not a knock on Memphis coach John Calipari. I love John Calipari, and think he's a great college basketball coach. He's a great recruiter and motivator. He gets those kids to play hard. I just don't think he's the best teacher when it comes to elevating a player's game. In the NBA (most NBA teams anyway) the head coaches are great at making the best of a player's talent.

Now let me talk about Derrick Rose. I think Rose is the NBA draft's 1st selection this year. Whatever team drafts him will essentially be drafting, a slightly less physical and a more gifted shooter, Baron Davis . Rose is 6' 3" 190 lbs. Davis is 6' 3" 215 lbs. Anyone who's watched Baron Davis knows what kind of compliment that is. There's only one knock on Davis and that's his durability issues. So far Rose hasn't had those issues. Davis is a complete point guard. He can take over a game with his scoring and, at the same time, be unselfish with the basketball. Rose has those same abilities.

There are few NBA point guards in existence who have those qualities. Most point guards who have that unselfish mentality can't really shoot that well. And point guards who are great scores don't really pass unless they have to. There's a short list of guys in the NBA currently who have those characteristics. They are (in my personal ranking order) Steve Nash , Chris Paul , Baron Davis, Deron Williams , and Chauncey Billups . That's it. You can now add Derrick Rose to that group.

Rose is not only star for the Tigers, he's also a future superstar in the NBA. I'm not saying anything most people don't already think or know with that statement, but I am taking the how good he'll be to the next level. I haven't heard any 'experts" go as far into it as I have. And don't worry, anything I post as far as predictions go will become future posts to grade myself on. If you're a consistent reader of this blog you'll see me grade myself on all predictions.

Making Sense of Why Isiah Thomas Still Has a Job

This is the most ridiculous thing in the NBA right now. How in the world does Isiah Thomas still have a job? How does an executive keep his job after making one bad deal after another? Just what he’s done in the past year can be grounds to fire someone. I mean if a sexual harassment lawsuit doesn’t get you fired then I guess putting together the worst roster in the NBA in addition to having the highest payroll won’t matter.

I do have a theory on why he still has a job. It’s not a very sound one but given how owner James Dolan seems not to have any sense it could be plausible.

Say what you want about Isiah and his GM skills but he does have a decent track record when it comes to coaching. He was successful at it when he was a head coach for the Pacers many years ago. When the Knicks fired newly hired head coach Larry Brown after a horrendous year Isiah took over the coaching duties. Brown, however, had $40 million on left on his contract that was guaranteed. The Knicks and Coach Brown later settled on a $18 million buyout. Now that Isiah was the head coach and GM it saved Dolan from having to pay two people to do the coaching. To get a big name coach they’d probably have to pay out at least $5 million a year. This is Isiah’s second year in a dual role. After completing this season, Dolan has essentially saved $10 million of the $18 million due to Brown by having Isiah in the dual role. One more year and Brown’s contract in addition to Isiah coaching in his place becomes a wash. That’s my theory anyway. Another thing to factor is that even though Dolan has public pressure to fire Isiah financially he’s doing the right thing. A month ago the Knicks somehow topped Forbes Magazine as the highest valued franchise in the NBA despite their turmoil at $604 million so it’s not like the guy is losing money. But just because you are making money doesn’t mean you have to waste money.

Every year he’s been on the job, Isiah has set the Knicks back by making one bonehead acquisition or transaction after another. Example: everyone knew acquiring Zack Randolph to play alongside Eddy Curry wouldn’t work because they both were post players. They don’t complement each other. Just like Marbury (who’s now injured) and Jamal Crawford don’t complement each other. That roster is a mess of players who will never gel.

If the Knicks ever hope to become successful again they’ll need to fire Isiah and be patient. Isiah has created something that no GM or coach could fix in less than 3 years. The sooner they get Isiah out of there the sooner the rebuilding can begin. His track record says that every move he makes sets the Knicks back 1 more year. If Dolan has any sense left (which most people will question) he’ll let Isiah go after this year and block him from doing any more moves. If he does that the NBA will be a better league. I don’t like the Knicks but they are making a mockery of the NBA with

Grading My Fantasy Football Predictions

While I didn't do this on my blog I still wanted to review my predictions for the 2007 fantasy football season. It was a mixed review:

Best WR: Terrell Owens- Not Steve Smith! T.O. will be the best WR in the league. This year, with Parcells out, T.O. will have his best season since his first year with the Eagles. I expect a minimum 14 TD’s.
Grade: A-. First, no one in their right mind would have predicted Randy Moss to score an NFL record 23 TDs. That counts as the minus part of the A. I predicted TO to score a minimum 14 TDs and he scored 15 TDs without playing the last game due to an ankle injury. In fact, he was 95 yards and a TD from having his best season ever which I firmly believe he would have gotten had he played the last game of the season. He did finish as the second best WR in fantasy overall scoring. Steve Smith was nowhere in sight.

This year’s Marques Colston: James Jones WR/Packers- First, I want to confess something. Last year I am the person who picked up Colston before the season began. Although, I did see some talent there, I only picked him up because he qualified as a TE in Yahoo! scoring. I thought I could play someone who got WR looks at the TE position. I never intended on playing him at WR. I never thought he would produce those kinds of numbers as a rookie. Now back to Jones. Regardless of how the Donald Driver injury plays out or where he is on the depth chart, Jones is going to make an impact. I’m not saying to expect Colston type numbers, I’m saying Jones is a guy who was an unknown and will make a fantasy impact, just like Colston did.
Grade: D. I was looking OK on this pick after the first 8 weeks of the season. Jones was making a name for himself but tailed off the second half of the season. All I predicted would be he would be a relevant contributor to the fantasy format and he was (in the first 8 games) and wasn't (in that last 8 games). Not the best prediction here but moving on.

Best TE other than Antonio Gates: Chris Cooley- I think Cooley is coming into his own. Last year, there were 4 TE’s that scored 6 or more TD’s after week 5. Gates and Crumpler had 7 each, Shockey and Cooley had 6 scores. Want another stat. Cooley has had 3 years in a row where he’s scored at least 6 TD’s. Only two other TE’s in the league can claim that. That’s Gates and Shockey. This year, for the first time in his career, there’s a little stability at QB with the Redskins. Campbell is no Peyton or Carson, but he is reliable. Shockey is high on this list as well. In fact, if it wasn’t for some injury concerns and the erratic play of little Manning, Shockey would be the clear cut number 2. Another person you could argue for the number 2 spot (some experts do have him number 2) is V. Davis. I can see why, but has Davis really done anything yet? He has loads of potential and he may get there, but how many former NFL players have had that label? I’ll take a guy who has proven that he can produce.
Grade: C. Well I didn't exactly knock this out of the park. Cooley did have a career year. He did have 786 yards and 8 TDs, both career bests, and good for 5th in ESPN leagues. Of course no one would have predicted Jason Witten to be the best TE in the league OVER Gates in 2007. Meanwhile, the highly drafted TE Vernon Davis finished 14th and Shockey finished 11th (missing the final 2 games with injury). I'd say I did good but not great in that prediction.

Best RB who wasn’t drafted (or rated) in the top 5: Laurence Maroney- Some of you already know my feelings on Maroney. Maroney just excites me. By season’s end, Maroney will be considered a top 5 pick for next year’s draft. NE is not a passing team. They are a balanced team. Did you know that the Patriots scored 20 rushing TD’s last year? Dillon had 13 and Maroney had 6. If old, broken down Corey Dillon can score 13 TD’s in a part time role, how many TD’s will Maroney score as the lone back in that offense? I say 15 at the minimum. I saw one ESPN expert say that he has concerns with Maroney’s tackle-breaking ability. He had Maroney ranked near the bottom of the second round. What?!!! Maroney bulldozes people and runs like a train! He’s fast, elusive, and powerful. If any of you saw Maroney run at the University of Minnesota and in a part time role, run with the Patriots last year, you’d agree with me. As long as that shoulder stays intact, you can book Maroney as a top 5 pick in the 2008 draft.
Grade: D and B: Before you you go postal on my grading here please let me explain. Maroney, scoring wise, finsihed 24th among fantasy RBs despite missing 3 games with an injury. While I'll admit he didn't put up the numbers I thought he would, I refuse to say he's not as talented as I said he was. People are seeing what Maroney can do if given the opportunity by the way he's played during the playoffs. He's been given the ball over the past month including the playoffs and produced like a number 1 fantasy back.

Maroney's rookie numbers were 175 carries for 745 and 6 TDs. That's a 4.3 average. This year, Maroney's numbers where 185 carries for 835 yds and 6 TDs. That's a 4.5 average. He actually had a better season than his rookie year. The thing I didn't factor in is how much the addition of Moss and Welker would factor in to how many carries Maroney would get.

The last five games (including the playoffs) Maroney has averaged 21 carries for 110 yard and a TD a game. That's a 5.2 average. As I stated in my very first blog topic, it's also about opportunities. Granted, that doesn't help you much with your fantasy team now but it's still a legitimate argument. You CAN'T predict coaches. I can only predict players. Maroney is the real deal. Don't be surprised if he is the Super Bowl MVP.

Will NFL Head Coaches Ever Learn?

When are these NFL coaches going to learn to stop pulling their players during the last few weeks of the regular season? It's no coincidence that the teams that make the most of their playoff run aren't rusty. No head coach has been worse about this than Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy. Dungy has had one of the top 2 teams in every year in the past 4 years yet he's made only one trip to the Super Bowl. The one trip he made came in 2006 in which Peyton Manning and the Colts played all 16 of their games and ended up winning the Super Bowl by beating the Chicago Bears.

Let me give you some history. In 2004, the year that Manning threw for then NFL record 49 TD passes, Manning and most of the starters didn't play but 1 series in the final game of the season that year. No one seems to mention or even be aware that Tom Brady would not own the NFL record for TD passes had Manning played a full 16 games that year. Manning would still have the record if he had played that final game. That's all I'll say about that. Getting back to the point, the Colts lost to the Patriots in the Divisional Playoffs to end their year in 2004.

The Patriots in 2004 had the best record in the NFL at 14-2. They had secured home field advantage going into their final game. But, and here's the big difference in coaching, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick played his starters in that "meaningless" game. They played and won that final regular season game and took that momentum into the playoffs. When the Colts played the Patriots guess who was sharper. The Patriots won and went on to win the Super Bowl.

In 2005, this time it was the Colts who had secured home field advantage and again took the final week off. They played their starters for 1 series and had a bye week before playing the Steelers in the Divisional Playoffs.

The Steelers had scratched and clawed the whole season just to make the playoffs that year. They got a Wild Card birth with a win in the final game of the season. But they also had some momentum. Coming off of a win in the Wild Card round, the Steelers faced a Colts team that had not played football in nearly 3 weeks. The Colts were the better team and no one would argue that (maybe Steelers fans). The Colts were just a bit off their game. They ended up losing to the Steelers, who ended up winning the Super Bowl.

I already mentioned in my opening paragraph that the Colts won the Super Bowl in 2006 with the "coincidence" of having to play all 16 games. They didn't even have a playoff bye week that year. they had to play in every round of the playoffs and even had to win on the road (at Baltimore) to get to and finally win the Super Bowl.

This year (2007), the Colts once again had a "meaningless" final week of the season. Dungy played his starters a bit more by playing them for 1 quarter. All I could hear echoing in my brain while seeing Dungy pull his starters were the famous words of NY Jets head coach (now with KC) Herman Edwards, "Hello!?! You play to win the game!" Those words should be preached every week in every NFL locker room. Dungy, once again, took the his foot off the gas. Once again, he allowed his team to "relax". Once again, had nearly 3 weeks off. Once again, they lost in the Divisional round. Meanwhile, the Patriots are going after a perfect season by playing every game with that killer instinct. They never took their feet off the gas. They've won 18 games in a row by being just plain ruthless.

The Giants, who are playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, played a "meaningless" game in their final week VS. those same Patriots. They got blasted by most of the media for playing their starters in a game that meant nothing. They lost the game but gained some confidence by just about beating the best team on the planet. They had a few injuries in that game but had gained the most important two things there are in sports, confidence and momentum. The Giants isn't even in the top five of the NFL's best teams this year but they did "play to win the game". Now they are going to play the Patriots in what I think will be a very fun Super Bowl. For once I'll be looking forward to watching the game as much as I'll be looking forward to watching the commercials.

In closing, I'd like to give Tony Dungy a little advice. "Hello!?! You play to win the game!"

Fantasy Baseball VS. Fantasy Football

Baseball season is around the corner and that means it’s time to start thinking about fantasy baseball. Most people find fantasy baseball to be too long and too hard to keep up with for a whole season. The 162 games and daily lineup changes are frowned upon. People think it’s just too hard and lose interest by the allstar break. I have a completely different attitude about it, however. I think fantasy baseball is the purest form of fantasy sports competition. There is very little luck involved. If you win in baseball it is earned. The same reasons why people don’t like fantasy baseball are the same reasons why the game is the best. You can’t cry luck if you lose.


Fantasy football is like playing blackjack at the casinos. You know how to play the game. You play the odds and you still have over 50% chance of losing. In Football, you know how to play the game. You play the matchups. You have superior players than your opponent and yet you lose 111-55 that week. It’ll drive you to pull your hair out. And yet most people enjoy that game the most. Charge a league fee of $50 for football and you’ll have 14 people wanting to get into a 12 team league. Ask for $50 for a 10 team league in baseball and you may get 2 people if you’re lucky.


I can understand why people watch football over baseball. The pace of the game is much faster in football. Personally, I enjoy football more and would watch it with or w/o a fantasy league. I’m not sure I could say the same for baseball unless it’s the final month of the season. But when you’re asking me to play something for money I want to play something where I know luck is not a big deciding factor. You control your own success in baseball. You control nothing in football. I’ve never been bitter in any fantasy baseball season because I didn’t win. I just learn from my mistakes and try to do better the next season. In football, every year I’m bitter and miserable it seems. Even in the successful years I almost hate the game. I play it because I love competition. Given the choice between a $50 football league and a $50 baseball league I chose baseball every time. I feel I have equal knowledge of all 3 major sports (football, baseball, and basketball). My knowledge of the game is no factor of which fantasy sport I enjoy the most. It has to do with control. In baseball I have complete control and that’s why I choose baseball.

Are You Jonesing?

50 Bucks- Yeah that's how much it's gonna cost you to see a couple of has beens Roy Jones Junior and Felix Trinidad fight this Saturday. No thank you. Don't get me wrong. I love Roy but his fighting career ended 2 years ago. I can't believe people would pay to watch this fight. In fact, I've seen the fight before. Jones is going to fight in round 1. After that, he'll dance around and act like he's fighting for 11 rounds. He'll dive in and dive out. He's going to shuffle his feet and try to get a rise out of the crowd. I don't know who's going to win and don't really care but save yourself some money.

3 Million- Yikes! The Cowboys just forked up that much to resign their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The Cowboys stepped up to make sure no team would sign their guy to a head coaching job by giving him as much money as Wade Phillips the head coach makes. It's also a record contract for an offensive coordinator. Now that's just plain silly. Will Garrett turn out to be a great head coach one day? Who knows but he hasn't even proved that he's a great offensive coordinator yet. I mean all he did was direct Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber, Jason Witten, and a good offensive line to a good season. Those are exceptional players. They'd probably put up points in almost any offensive system. Garrett was a QB coach with the Dolphins before signing on with the 'Boys last year. No one was breaking down any doors to get him then. Again, I have nothing against the guy but I just don't understand where all this hoopla came from about a 1st year offensive coordinator with a loaded roster.

I've had a very busy week and haven't been able to put the time into the new blog as I intended, but next week things should get back to normal and I'll get the blog in gear.

Introduction

Since I’ve always had a desire to be a scout or GM of a professional sports organization, I’ve decided to dedicate a blog to it. I know my dream is more likely to be a “pipedream” than reality, but I did want to test myself by being accountable. It will not be the only topic that I cover. I will also cover other sports topics both fantasy and reality. I'll talk about general everyday sports subjects when inspired to do so. But the thing that inspired this blog is my "inner GM". Hopefully, my desire and ego to be right about sports will help me to continue writing about it. As always, if I feel that people read it and enjoy it, that will give me the fuel to continue. So w/o further delay here's the first topic...

NFL Draft Gem

With the NFL draft just around the corner, it’s time to start evaluating some future stars of the league. I feel I’m better at evaluating offensive talent than defensive talent so most of my football topics will be about offensive players. Every once in a while I’ll give an opinion of the defensive side of the ball.

Most people who follow football know who the best RB coming out of college is this year. Darren McFadden will be the first RB drafted. There’s no argument there, but if I was running an NFL team, I wouldn’t want to pay a RB the money it would take to sign a top 5 pick at that position. The RB position is the easiest to fill in football. Unless you have a true superstar like Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson there is no reason to fork over that amount of money on your RB. You should save the $50/$60 million contracts for franchise QBs or for dominant defensive players.

While I believe that McFadden is a going to be a good RB I don’t believe he is the same can’t miss RB that Adrian Peterson was/is. To me, the best value at RB is Rashard Mendenhall, the junior at Illinois. He’s a smaller back than McFadden at 5’11” but he stands at 210 lbs. To me that’s a prototypical RB. I’d rather have a RB at 5’11” than 6’2” or 6’3”. The taller backs are bigger targets and are more susceptible to bigger hits. McFadden stands in at 6’2” 210 lbs. Mendenhall runs a 4.45-4.48 (highest-lowest times) 40 yard dash compared to McFadden’s 4.42-4.45. Their speeds are similar. Neither player is in danger of getting caught from behind.

I’m going out on a limb and saying that Mendenhall will have as good of if not better career as McFadden. Obviously, it will depend on what team drafts him and how they utilize him. You could be the best RB in the world but if your coach is too stupid or has too much loyalty to the veteran he would be replacing you can’t control that. Vikings coach, case in point, didn’t give the starting nod to Adrian Peterson this year until after week 6. Everyone on the planet knew that the Peterson should be the starting ball carrier but he stubbornly kept veteran Chester Taylor as the starter. But Peterson’s talent finally forced his hand and he ended up giving in. The Vinkings, coincidently, became a playoff contender with Peterson running the rock as a starter. Imagine if Peterson was the day one starter. The Vikings would have made the playoffs and who knows what they could have done. Coaches can derail a career just by not utilizing their players’ talent correctly. Shaun Payton, the N.O. Saints coach is another fine example of not using his players (Reggie Bush) correctly but that’s another blog topic by itself.

My point is whatever team ends up with Rashard Mendenhall, they will have the steal of the draft. His contract will be a bargain and if given the opportunity to shine you’re looking at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.