2-0 Doesn’t Mean Squat

In the NFL, a 2-0 start doesn’t mean anything. Excluding the Dolphins, any team can start off with victories in their first two games. There isn’t a sport out there that changes so much from week to week. Small sample: Detroit Lions started off 2-0 last year. Does anyone remember anything about that team? No, because they were pretty bad from then on. They finished the rest of the season 5-9, ending at 7-9.
On the flip side it also doesn’t mean anything for a team to start 0-2. Last year, the Super Bowl winning Giants started off 0-2. Point is, teams can go on a roll. They can go on a downward roll or an upward roll. I’m going to dissect each end of the spectrum by going over the 2-0s and the 0-2s that matter.

The 2-0s:

Dallas Cowboys- Beat Cleveland and Philadelphia.
The Cowboys are very good, as you all know. The only question this team has is on defense. The offense is too good for the defense to matter on most weeks. I would be shocked if this team lost more than 3 games this season. I expect Dallas to keep it going and end up with the best record in the NFL. The REAL DEAL.

NY Giants- Beat Washington and St. Lois.
The defending Super Bowl champs are off to a good start. Looking at their schedule, they should have no problems starting the season 6-0. Their first real test will be at Pittsburgh in week 8. From there, they’ll have to play several tough teams in consecutive weeks. Dallas, Philadelphia, and Baltimore (Baltimore is good this year. Record won’t be all that great but they have a good football team). Going 1-3 during that stretch is a real possibility. THE REAL DEAL.

Green Bay Packers- Beat Minnesota and Detroit.
Let’s hold off on the crowning of Aaron Rodgers as a great QB. I think he’s a good QB but this team has deficiencies and Rogers has yet to face a good pass defense. I still think this team is an 8-8 or 9-7 team. This team will only make the playoffs by default. They play in a bad division. I still think there is a chance the Vikings can overtake them. Dennis Green comes to mind when talking about this team. At season’s end we’ll all be saying, “THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!” FAKES.

Carolina Panthers- Beat San Diego and Chicago.
Carolina beat San Diego on the last play of the game and then beat Chicago in a similar fourth quarter comeback. Let’s give credit where credit is due, which is they hung in there and won the games w/o their best WR (Steve Smith). Reality is reality though. The Saints are the best team in this division. And Carolina has always been a streaky team. They will sputter to the finish line after their good start. Even if they make the playoffs, they will not get very far. FAKES.

Arizona Cardinals- Beat San Francisco and Miami.
Not a great resume of victories there. If there were to be a Div II in the NFL, the Dolphins would fit the bill. Beating San Francisco doesn’t give you any bragging rights either. However, this team has some real players. The offense, as long as Kurt Warner remains healthy, is dangerous and will be among the top 5 of the NFL this year. It’s just asking a lot to expect Warner to stay healthy.The defense shows flashes of being good. And this division is quite possibly the worst in the NFL. This team could be playoff bound with an unimpressive record but they will be a dangerous opponent. THE REAL DEAL.

New England Patriots- Beat Kansas City and NY Jets.
Let’s be real here. This team lost Tom Brady. They have played a really bad KC team and a mediocre NY Jets team. This week they play Div II Miami. At 3-0 they will look good. It won’t last. They will lose at least 6 games this year. Matt Cassel may be a capable player as long as things are going well. However, when he will need to put the team on his shoulders to carry them to victory they will realize just how weak they are w/o Tom Brady. The Patriots are about to see why the Vikings and the Raiders traded Moss to begin with. No QB = No point in playing hard every play. The snowball hasn’t started downhill yet but it will. FAKES.

Pittsburgh Steelers- Beat Houston and Cleveland.
W/o Brady playing in New England, suddenly the Steelers are becoming a lot of people’s AFC pick for the Super Bowl. The picks are not unwarranted. The Steelers have a legitimate chance here. They are as good as any team in the AFC right now. The next 3 weeks will give is a true test of how good this team can be with games against Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Jacksonville on the horizon. There isn’t a doubt this is a playoff team. The only question is how will they play come playoff time? THE REAL DEAL.

Tennessee Titans- Beat Jacksonville and Cincinnati.
Beating the Jags is something to brag about but beating the Bungals, not so much. The Titans never really dominate record wise but they have a great defense and a good enough offense. Vince Young is on the “Nut Case” list and unable to go. Kerry Collins doesn’t exactly say Super Bowl QB either. But, this team is built around defense and a great running game. It doesn’t really matter who the QB is as long as it’s not Joey Harrington. Chris Johnson and LenDale White are what this offense is built around. If Collins can make a few first downs with his arm, this team will climb up everyone’s radar very soon. It won’t be pretty but as long as DE Albert Haynesworth is healthy, this team will compete every week. THE REAL DEAL.

Denver Broncos- Beat Oakland and *San Diego.
Notice the asterisk by SD. A win is a win because it counts in the standings as a win. But, this team needed a miracle at home to beat the only team that matters in this division. Denver is not as good as the record says. Their offense looks good but that defense looks very shaky. I’m not a believer and think Denver will end up 2nd in the AFC West. If they get in the playoffs (queue the Jim Mora tape, “Playoffs!?....Playoffs??!!) they won’t get far. FAKES.



Now the 0-2 teams that matter……

The Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings have a pretty good team despite their 0-2 record. I think the QB change will do them some good and as long as Adrian Peterson remains on the field healthy, this team can beat the Packers for the NFC North title. I think the 0-2 start vs the 2-0 start by the Packers may be hard to overcome but this team will make a run at it. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Vikings in the playoffs in place of those Packers.

The San Diego Chargers.
I think they will bounce back and still win the AFC West ahead of the Denver Broncos despite starting off 0-2. Yes it hurts to lose Shawne Merriman. But this team can still outscore people. And they have a good enough defense to compete. I don’t like Philip Rivers personally, but he’s tough and a good NFL QB. LT is still one of the best RBs in the league, when healthy. Even if he’s not, this team has capable backups. Sproles is as good as Devin Hester on special teams and certainly can fill in for LT if needed. Point is there is too much talent on this roster for them not to bounce back and I expect them to.

I'm Back!

Well it’s been a long while since I posted. It took football season to get here to get me fired up again to write. Life’s been busy over the past few months but I’m back. I have lots to talk about so let’s get to it. I’m going to do some good old fashioned bullet points to talk about everything since it will be random stuff to get the ball rolling again. I’ve also separated the topics so everyone can post separately on the sport. Also, just a reminder, my first post of 2009 will be a review of all my predictions that I’ve made on this blog during 2008. Feel free to go back to some of my older posts to refresh your memory. Today’s posts are just to get things rolling.
First Topic: College Football
-USC, as usual, looks like they are in a class by themselves. However, they generally have a game that has you scratching your head at some point during the season. This year will be no different. One of these games USC will play down to an inferior opponent and struggle. This year I expect them to win that game though. Mark Sanchez is an impressive looking QB. He’s definitely an NFL first rounder in my book. He’s got a great arm, great poise, and very accurate. He has all of Matt Leinart’s strengths and none of his weaknesses.

-I’ve never been impressed with this Georgia team. They got too much credit for beating a smaller less talented Hawaii team last year in the Sugar Bowl. Don’t get me wrong. This team is an elite team in the SEC. I just don’t believe they are the 3rd best team in the country. They will get a chance to prove themselves with bouts against Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida. That’s a tough schedule. I’ll be a believer if they get through that. SEC is argued to be the best conference every year but I don’t think it’s an argument this year. The SEC is the best and it’s not even close. Man that was hard to say out loud.

MLB

-The Tampa Rays and the Boston Red Sox are battling it out for the American League East. Going into today (September 18th) the Rays have a 2 game lead over the BoSox. I said at the beginning of the year on this blog that I picked Boston to win the World Series against the Mets so I guess I’ll stick to that. Manny leaving town was not expected but I won’t make excuses. The BoSox still have a great team and don’t feel pressure. We’ll see what happens in the playoffs.

-And speaking of those Mets, and my pick for the National League representatives, they are in a even tighter race for the playoffs. Going into today they are locked in a big time pennant race with the Phillies and half a game back in the standings. They are also a half a game ahead of the Brewers for the wild card. It’s going to be a crazy week and a half finish to the season. I’m not sure it matters all that much because I think the road to the World Series will go through the Chicago Cubs. Again, I picked the Mets so I will stick by the pick.

-To speak about the Cubs more, they have no weaknesses (well if you include the curse they have 1). Their top 3 pitchers can matchup against anyone’s top 3. Harden, Zambrano, and Dempster are big power arms that can shut down any lineup. The bullpen? Tops in the league. Samardzija, Marmol, and Wood are the best COMBINED trio of relief pitchers in the league.

NFL

-Though not on this blog, I picked the Titans and the Cowboys to play in the Super Bowl this year. The Titans were a random pick that I just had a feeling about and the Cowboys a more obvious pick. After the first 2 weeks of the season I still feel confident with those picks.
-What is up with Vince Young? I don’t believe that he was suicidal, like some of the reports. I do believe that he did have a meltdown though. What is up with these mental cases that come from the University of Texas? Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, and now Vince Young. Let’s not forget about Roy Williams and some of the crazy things he’s said while being a member of the Detroit Lions. What the heck is Mack Brown doing to these kids? Watch out Denver Broncos. Former Texas RB Selvin Young is next to do something crazy. You heard it here first…..Geez.

-Speaking of the Broncos. That call by Ref Ed Hercules was just awful. At least he admitted that it was awful. That allowed the Broncos to get a win they didn’t deserve against the Chargers. Making matters worse, it made Mike Shanahan look good by going for two to win the game. You know, no one in the NFL has better job security than Mike Shanahan (Bill Bellicheat but that’s it). Any other coach wouldn’t be able to make the call to try this. Fail and you are certain to lose your job at season’s end, if not before. Shanahan has the luxury of going with his gut because if he’s wrong he still has a job no matter what. Other coaches have to play it safe.

Blog Closed for a while

For my two fans who read my blog, I will be shutting down writing for a while. Life is just a bit too hectic right now for me to be able to write so I don't want to waste your time. Maybe by football season things will be a bit more normal. I will let everyone know when I start writing again. Thanks.

Random Thoughts on NBA Playoffs So Far

Cavs - Wizards
-Game one of the Cavaliers and Wizards didn't disappoint. The teams went back and forth and in the end the Cavs pulled out a squeeker to go up 1-0. Expect every game to be this intense. It felt like a fight could break out at any moment (and it nearly did). These teams really hate each other. And it's fun to watch.
-After all the crap DeShawn Stevenson talked, he couldn't back it up. It was the same DeShawn Stevenson who publicly said that LeBron James was overrated. All DeShawn did when it was time to put his game where his mouth is was to go 1-9 with 3 points. Hey DeShawn, in the famous lyrics of Fred Durst, "your mouth is writing checks that your ass can't cash!" Let me suggest that the league give DeShawn a drug test and the team to put some duct tape over his mouth.

Suns - Spurs
-Wow, what a game! Too much happened in this game for me to talk about everything.
-Is it me or does Phoenix actually look like the best team in this series. I mean, could the Spurs play a better game than that? I think not. It took 2 OTs, Amare Stoudemire fouling out, a Tim Duncan 3 pointer (his first of the season), and Tim Duncan to score 40 points to win. If the Suns can shake off the tough loss, I'm confident they can win this series.
-Amare Stoudemire's body control is amazing to watch.
-To all NBA Refs, stop calling fouls on Tim Duncan. Don't you know that Tim Duncan has never committed a foul in his career? It is rare to see Duncan get called for a foul without him crying over it. Seriously, every foul he cries over! It makes me sick.
-To all NBA Refs, call a foul every time Tim Duncan misses a contested shot. It is also a rare moment to see Duncan not cry when someone plays good defense on him and he misses.

I'm not going to write about every game but the first two games were great and I couldn't help it. Let's hope the rest of the playoffs are as good as these games were.

Smoked Aces

We’re going on three weeks into the baseball season and there have been some serious issues with some elite aces. Below are my thoughts on a few of these big name pitchers and why I think they are struggling.

CC Sabathia- The defending AL Cy Young winner has been struggling mightily. His numbers through 4-18-2008 are 18 IP, 13.50 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, while striking out 14. The strikeout rate isn’t bad but that WHIP is awful. The Indians say he’s not injured and I believe them. CC still has had the great velocity on his fastballs (94-96MPH). He has just not been able to locate his pitches. When he’s throwing strikes, they are “fat” strikes (and no I am not making a CC fat joke). CC is missing inside the strike zone. He is not locating very well and all his pitches are very hittable. I think CC will find his groove and break out of this slump. CC will find his rhythm soon enough as the weather gets warmer, and by the end of the year, his ERA will be back in the 3.5 range.

Justin Verlander- The pitcher who I thought would win the AL CY Young is also struggling. His season to date numbers are 24.1 IP, 7.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, while striking out 14. Mr. Verlander has been struggling just as bad as Sabathia even if his overall numbers look better. Word is that his velocity is actually down. He’s throwing around 93-94 MPH, which would be a great thing if you used to seeing him throw 99-101 MPH. Verlander may just have a bit of a tired arm from last year. It’s a cause for concern when a pitcher is not throwing as hard as he used to. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Verlander spend a short stint on the DL soon. He may just not be 100 %. Ultimately, Verlander will be OK and I expect he’ll be in the running for a CY Young Award before it’s all said and done.

Roy Oswalt- This year, even after a good start his last outing, Roy’s numbers are 23 IP, 6.65 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, while striking out 16. Roy has been on my worry radar for two seasons. Last year he showed some signs of decline with a high WHIP and lowering strike out rate. I’ve learned to watch for things like that since Jason Schmidt had the same issues a few years back. Now Schmidt is hardly ever healthy and is nowhere near the pitcher he once was even when healthy. Back to Oswalt, while you still may see a solid start from him here and there, it’s time to realize the decline. He still has a great name but he’ll no longer be the Roy Oswalt that we have come to expect.

2008 NBA Playoffs-

Well the time has come to break down the NBA playoffs. So without delay let’s get to the matchups:

Western Conference:
1. LA Lakers VS 8. Denver Nuggets- On paper this seems like a great series to watch. There will be lots of exciting offense to watch but the Denver Nuggets really don’t have what it takes to put any fear into the Lakers. I expect many shootouts in this series with the Nuggets missing the finish line of most of the games. Kobe (AKA The Assassin) Bryant is going to make sure the Nuggets fall in this one.
Prediction- LA Lakers in 4 (that’s right…a sweep)

2. N.O. Hornets VS 7. Dallas Mavericks - Count me in as one of the few people who never believed in the Hornets. I won’t discount their record or success. I just don’t believe they are championship ready yet. Chris Paul is a true superstar but the Mavericks are hitting their stride. Dirk is playing like the MVP since he’s returned from the ankle/knee injury. I see some fire in his eyes and his teammates have followed his lead. This will be a back and forth series but I think Dallas is not the right matchup for the young Hornets. The Hornets would have been much better off against the Nuggets.
Prediction- Dallas Mavericks in 7

3. San Antonio Spurs VS 6. Phoenix Suns- The Suns traded for the Diesel just because of the Spurs. Now they get to test and see if the move will pay off. The Suns and Spurs REALLY don’t like each other. This series is going to be electric and I can’t wait to see it. I know it’s not smart to bet against the Spurs but I don’t think that Shaq will put up with any underhanded nonsense from Bruce Bowen or the rest of that dirty playing Spurs team. Consider Shaq the highest paid bodyguard in the world in this series.
Prediction- Phoenix Suns in 6

4. Utah Jazz VS 5. Houston Rockets- This is the non relevant game of the Western Conference. Houston doesn’t have enough to beat the Jazz. Not having Yao is going to hurt now more so than it did in the regular season. We all know that T-Mac doesn’t know how to will a team to win.
Prediction- Utah Jazz in 5

Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Celtics VS Atlanta Hawks- This one is just so lopsided I won’t even comment on.
Prediction- Boston Celtics in 4

2. Detroit Pistons VS Philadelphia 76ers- The Pistons have been a huge thorn in the 76ers side for many years. This year won’t be any different. The Sixers just aren’t there yet with this young team to beat a playoff tested Pistons team.
Prediction- Pistons in 4

3. Orlando Magic VS 6. Toronto Raptors- If I cared about who wins this series at all it may be enjoyable but I don’t. Both of these teams are solid and will give each other fits. It will be a good series as far as the back and forth goes but I have to say that since neither of these teams stands a chance to make it to the finals so it doesn’t matter to me.
Prediction- Orlando Magic in 7

4. Cleveland Cavaliers VS Washington Wizards- This will be a good series to watch. There is some bad blood and some history with these teams. It will be a good series to watch. On paper, now that Arenas is back, the Wizards are the better team. The Cavs starting 5 frustrate me because I don’t think they play the correct combination of players around LeBron James. Because of that, I don’t have confidence in the Cavs. I hope LeBron puts on a show and wills his team to victory but I have my doubts if he’s there yet in his career.
Prediction- Washington Wizards in 6

In the Conference Semi Finals:
Western Conference- Lakers will beat Utah in 6 and the Suns will beat Dallas in 7.
Eastern Conference- Detroit will pummel Orlando in 5 and Boston will advance past the Wizards in 5.

In the Conference Finals:
Western Conference - Lakers will beat the Suns in 7
Eastern Conference- Boston will beat the Pistons in 6

In the Finals: (I’ll break this down more when it actually gets here)
Boston will beat the Lakers in 6

A Few Different Things

While I’m not a believer in the Detroit Tigers, I also am not worried about their slow start to the season. The Tigers, through the first 7 games of the season, have started off 0-7. The thing is the Tigers are missing their spark plug. Curtis Granderson is the man who makes this team go. You don’t score 120 runs for a team and not be missed when you’re out of the lineup. Granderson is due back in a few weeks and the Tigers will get back on track. However, they have to start winning games or they will be in too big of a hole to climb out. Either way, this team’s bullpen is too much of a liability for them to be a serious contender. They have OK starting pitching. Of course, as a Cleveland Indians fan, they can continue to lose and I’ll just fine with that.

The NFL draft is just a few weeks away. There is still no sign of who the Dolphins are going to select at number 1. As of today, most experts seem to agree that it will be one of the Longs and not Matt Ryan. Who knows what the Parcells camp is thinking but I do know w/o a doubt they know who they are taking. That decision has been made already. If I was a betting man (and I am), it’s going to be Chris Long. He’s a safe investment, if there was such a thing. Chris Long would also bring back an immediate return on the investment. He’s ready to play right away. Of course, the Fins would have to decide how to fit him and Jason Taylor on the same defense because they essentially play the same position. We’ll see what happens come draft day.

Well, I’m off to a bad start with my championship predictions this year. After the Tigers collapsed in the final two minutes of the NCAA championship game, I’m now 0-2. The Patriots lost and now the Tigers. Can I make it 0-3 with the NBA? I’ll make an official prediction on the future NBA champs soon. I want to see the seeding first. I’m still leaning on the Lakers VS the Celtics as of today but I need to get a better feel for the Lakers before I commit.

The NCAA Final Four

While the two Final Four games on Saturday night seem like boring blowouts, it was anything but boring. The score may indicate there were two games easily won by Memphis and Kansas, but the games were highly entertaining. Kansas, in the first half, came out ready to play and played at a level like North Carolina has never seen this year. They were absolutely punched in the mouth by Kansas, and for the first time this year, looked like they didn't have confidence. Fact is, they didn't start the game with the same intensity that Kansas came with. Before UNC knew what hit them, they were down by 28 points! I was in disbelief at what I was seeing. UNC finally woke up and started punching back. Midway through the second half, UNC had Kansas doubting themselves and had the momentum. They climbed to within 4 points. You may see a team down by 28 points climb back into it in the NBA, but in college, it is unheard of. Kansas showed some serious character by withstanding the UNC run and finishing the game strong. I honestly thought they were going to fold under the pressure and the momentum that UNC had.

Memphis has played as well as any team I've ever watched at the NCAA tournament. They have played with confidence and consistency. At no point during any of their games did it feel like they were in jeopardy of losing. They just look like they are the better team when matching up against the opponent. Their talent is just overwhelming. They cause mismatches at just about every position. Coach Cal has these kids playing with the confidence it takes to win a championship. They believe they are better than everyone else, and the most remarkable thing is they are making their opponents believe that too. I see the look of fear and intimidation in every team they've played so far. Even fellow number 1 seed UCLA had the look of being over matched during the Final Four game. They knew they didn't have a shot at winning. They were playing like underdogs and played with a bit of desperation in their eyes.

Now it's Memphis and Kansas in the Championship game. Kansas likes to run and play a frantic pace. The problem for Kansas is so does Memphis. This game is going to be fun to watch. The pace will make you tired from watching on the couch. I don't think that Kansas has the talent to beat Memphis, and I think given the pace of the game, Memphis will be cutting down the nets in the end. I think that Kansas played a little over their heads in the UNC game. I don't think they have another one of those games in them. When it's all said and done, Memphis is this year's NCAA champion.

I want to make one small point about Tyler Hansbrough. Even though his numbers say he had a decent game with 17 ponits and 9 rebounds, he truly was over matched. He was playing a team with some inside presence and couldn't perform at his usual self. I think it's a sign of what you can expect of him in the NBA. If you dominate in college, it doesn't mean you can dominate in the NBA. Hansbrough is going to be an average player at best in the NBA. His motor is the one thing he has going for him. He hustles and is tenacious but he isn't going to be able to score like he did in college among the giant super athletes that the NBA has. He does have a future in the league but don't expect the 20 points and 10 rebounds to be what you see from him.

The other player I'd like to talk about is the man they call CDR. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a remarkable player. His style of basketball is very unique. In college basketball, he can take over a game and he's quite refreshing to watch. Some of the moves he makes attacking the rim I haven't seen since the Magic Johnson days. Those 1980's moves combined with the moves of the modern day player is what makes CDR the effective player has been. I can say w/o hesitation that there is no other player in college with that unique package. Unfortunately for CDR, he plays a position that is a dime or dozen in the NBA. He's a wing player. For those who don't understand the basketball lingo, a wing player is a guy who is basically a G or F who can drive to the basket and be able to score from the outside. It is generally a position that guys are anywhere from 6'5" to 6'9". The NBA is filled with those kind of players. Every year there tons of wing players entering the NBA draft and end up being busts or not even getting drafted. These guys have to match up against players like Josh Smith, Shawn Marion, Josh Howard, Tracy McGrady, and even LeBron James. Those are just a few examples. If you know the NBA and those players I've mentioned, you can see why wing players often struggle to take their college success to the NBA. I think CDR will stick around in the NBA and will be a decent player, but he isn't going to have anywhere near the career he's had in college at the next level. This is one evaluation I make that I hope I'm wrong about because I love CDR. But, looking at this from a unbiased point of view, that is my assessment.

A Quick This and That…

The NY Jets have spent a ton of money this offseason on free agents. As most Dolphins fans are, I am Jets hater. Nothing makes me happier than seeing the Jets overspend on high priced free agents. Too bad the Patriots aren’t this dumb. The Jets have improved their team but the price they have paid is just too high for what they got in return. They may have improved from a 4-12 team to maybe an 8-8 team, at best. I hope that was worth $130 + million. The ONLY way the Jets do better than that is if they end up with McFadden after the draft, in late April. Their offense is stale and he would help them in that department.

The NBA playoffs are almost here. The Western Conference is the best it has ever been. If you don’t win at least 50 games you will probably miss the playoffs. That’s just insane. The team to beat seems to be the Boston Celtics, out of the Eastern Conference. You’ll definitely have to play some great basketball to beat them. I still say that the Cavaliers are under the radar and will make some noise in the playoffs. They may not be good enough to beat Boston but they can beat everyone else. Everyone’s “new” band wagon team is now the N.O. Hornets. I guess the Lakers are old news since the Gasol injury and the Rockets are no longer hot enough to put into the discussion. The media is now in love with Chris Paul’s Hornets. I still say it’ll be the Lakers when all the smoke clears, out of the West. Boston vs. LA will be a great Finals, and maybe the NBA, will get their ratings back this year. Now if someone passes that memo to Detroit and San Antonio.

Baseball is here! And with that, here is your World Series prediction:
Boston Red Sox VS NY Mets, winner Red Sox.
I know I’m not going out on much of a limb here but that doesn’t mean that it won’t happen. The BoSox are just too good and the NL is too thin to think that J. Santana won’t push the Mets into the World Series.

One more quick thing on the draft, so I'm on record. Michigan QB Chad Henne, is the second best QB in this draft. For a guy who'll go in the 2nd or 3rd round, he's the 2008 draft's best bargain.

NFL Draft

In this piece, I’m going predict the who’s who of the 2008 NFL draft class. Go ahead and book these guys as future All Pros. But, I’ll only evaluate how I did on these predictions based on their upcoming rookie year. I’m not doing every single position but the players I see making a difference in year 1. Plus, I won’t talk about guys I’ve written about already.

Best WR: Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma
Standing at 6’4” 217 lbs, Kelly is a big physical target. Now throw in that he runs a 4.5 forty yard dash, and you have someone who’s almost impossible to cover. He has terrific hands. He doesn’t drop passes. When I see him play he reminds me of a Plaxico Burress mixed in with a little bit of Randy Moss. Will he reach that potential? That remains to be seen, but this guy is the best WR in the draft. Depending on who drafts him and what QB he has throwing him the ball will determine if he reaches that potential. In fact, if it weren’t for Rashard Mendenhall, I’d be all over Kelly being offensive rookie of the year. Again, that would depend on who drafts him though.

Best LB: Keith Rivers, USC
Go ahead and book the defensive rookie of the year to Rivers. I am very impressed with his tenacious tackling and his motor. He wore number 55 in college. And he plays very similar to the old USC number 55 (Junior Seau). No one has the intensity of Seau of course, but I think Rivers is going to be one of the leading tacklers in the league for many years.

NFL Free Agency
There have been lots of moves in NFL free agency this past week. The move I want to talk about is the recent signing of Michael Turner by the Atlanta Falcons. Turner will no doubt be a huge addition to the Falcons. This move will definitely help the Falcons move on from the whole Mike Vick fiasco. In the fantasy world Turner will be the new hot commodity.
Every since Turner played for Northern Illinois, I was a believer in his abilities. I was very disappointed when San Diego drafted him because I thought he’d never see any touched because of LT. That wasn’t entirely the case but we saw enough of Turner’s ability to know he had some serious talent and that he was a starting caliber RB in this league. There is one thing and only one thing that makes me cautious about Turner. I worry about his durability. Even as a backup to LT, he was often injured. Now he’ll be the main guy thanks to the Falcons finally realizing that Warrick Dunn was not an every down back anymore. It’s 2 years too late but better late than never I guess. I guess now we’ll see what Turner is really made up of but I’m also curious to where he gets drafted in fantasy drafts. Off the top of my head, I’d select Turner in the late first round or early second round. Hey, at least this gives me another reason to watch preseason football.

Just Sayin...

Football

The NFL Scouting Combine is over. Thank goodness! As big as a football fan as I am, I couldn’t stomach watching it. I couldn’t make myself watch but for just a few minutes here and there. What did we learn? Um, Darren McFadden is fast. Really? That’s a shocker. All those games he played in didn’t show that? Um, Jake Long has really long arms and big hands. Apparently this is a great thing for an offensive tackle. Again, the fact that he dominated on the field for the past few seasons didn’t matter? Then you see a guy who has played nearly 4 seasons as a starter at FSU, WR D’Cody Fagg, blew out his knee in a drill. Now his career is likely over and his dreams of playing in the NFL are washed down the tubes because of some stupid, meaningless drill. I don’t blame any of these kids for skipping the drills in the future.
The only thing that would be worth televising (and actually very interesting) would be if we got to watch those interviews. We know what these kids can do, for the most part, because we’ve seen them play in games. Why do we need to see a bunch of drills and seeing guys run through cones? Heck, even when I actually played football, I hated that part of the practice. Agility drills and 40 yard dashes were dreadful. I won’t be watching the Combine in the future.


Baseball

ESPN’s Buster Olney said on Mike & Mike in the Morning that he is picking the Cleveland Indians to play the Chicago Cubs in the World Series. He predicts that the Indians would beat the Cubs and become world champs. If he’s right, I’ll be in heaven given that I’m an Indians fan. I have to say, I can see the Cubs making it. The NL is for the taking and they have the pieces and the manager to do it. The only team standing in their way is the New York Mets, realistically. Even then, the Mets haven’t proven in the past that they can do anything. In the AL, however, the Indians have to take out the new and much improved Detroit Tigers, the defending champs Boston Red Sox, and not to mention the evil empire known as the New York Yankees. Personally, I feel the Red Sox just have too much for any other team to handle. They have a great pitching staff from top to bottom. Their lineup is incredible. They also don’t feel any pressure. In short, they have no weaknesses. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Red Sox will repeat. I also hope that I just jinxed them.


Basketball

The Memphis Tigers finally lost a game. Tennessee beat the Tigers in a great game that could have gone either way. I’m sure everyone saw the game so I won’t go into details. History said that the Tigers were going to lose. I think the number 1 team has played at home to the number 2 team 5 times (counting this game) and each time the number 2 team has beaten the number 1 team. The Tigers can go about their business now and just play for what it’s all about anyway, which is winning the NCAA title. Being number 1 just puts a big bull’s eye on you and then being undefeated just doubles that pressure. Ask Tennessee how it feels to be number 1. Three days after beating Memphis and becoming the new number 1 team in the country, Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt. There’s a big pressure difference when it comes to being the hunter and being the hunted.

I'm Back

Since I've been on hiatus the last few weeks, I'm going to touch on a few different things...

NBA Trades

I won't go into details about all the trades but to touch on a few, the Lakers just plain ripped off the Grizzlies. I never will understand what the Grizzlies were thinking giving up Pau Gasol for a bag of peanuts. They got crap back in players and the two first round picks they get back won't help because the Lakers are too good for those picks to be high enough to matter. The NBA draft rarely produces any quality players that go late in round 1. The Grizzlies could have gotten more and have basically made the Lakers unbeatable coming out of the Western Conference. This trade compares to the trade the Atlanta Hawks did several years ago when they traded Rasheed Wallace to Detroit for basically a bag of roastet peanuts. Everyone scratched their heads on that one and the Detroit Pistons won a championship that year because of it. Get ready folks because history is about to repeat itself. The Lakers, once they get Andrew Bynam back from injury, will be unstoppable.

The second trade I want to discuss is the one that just happened. The Cleveland Cavaliers just completed the second best trade of the year. To me this trade brings them up to the Boston Celtics level. I won't go into details about every player in the deal but they essentially gave up Larry Hughes for Ben Wallace and Wally Szerbiak. Ben Wallace is a nice player to have, even if he is on the downside of his career, but the player that is going to be huge is Szerbiak. People are underestimating how huge this addition is. Szerbiak is the outside shooter that the Cavs have been lacking. He's one of the best shooters in the NBA. He will complement LeBron James very well because, unlike Larry Hughes, Szerbiak can score without dominating the ball. LeBron will now have a little more space to work with, and if teams doubleteam him, he now has two sharp shooters that can kill defenses. Point Guard, Daniel Gibson, along with Szerbiak will space the floor and give LeBron James more lane to work with. Ben Wallace is the player that does the dirty work. He doesn't need the ball to be happy. The Cavs starting lineup will be LeBron James, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szerbiak, Ben Wallace, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Experts all think that this Cavs team lacks a true point guard and that's what LeBron needs. I disagree. The Cavs are much better this way because LeBron is all the playmaker this team needs. He doesn't need someone else to dominate the ball and run offense. With his abilities, he needs role players around him while he creates the offense. A true point guard would take away his touches. That's why I never was on board the Jason Kidd to Cleveland deal. Also, once Anderson Varejao gets healthy, they will have another energy guy in addition to Ben Wallace. This team kind of reminds of the Philadelphia 76ers team that went to the NBA Finals back in 2001. The Cavs now have great role players surrounding a superstar player just like the Sixers had back then. I know this year, for the first time in a while, I will be watching the NBA playoffs with great interest and not just because there's nothing else to watch.

Steroids in Baseball

I really hate this topic because, like most people, I'm sick of hearing about it. I'll just write a little on it because it is news, after all. Truth is, most fans don't care one way or the other but you can't help to read or talk about it. My view on this whole subject is if you aren't going suspend players who have "cheated" in the past, there's no sense in talking about this crap anymore. We as fans know there were a lot of players who did this stuff. HGH, Steroids, Insilin, B-12 shots, pain pills, Ephedrine....you get the idea. WE DON'T CARE. Congress, please just let it go if you aren't going punish people who've used the stuff. Stop wasting people's time and our tax dollars for a sideshow.

Fantasy Baseball

The fantasy baseball draft is just around the corner for most people playing in leagues. Here are a few tips to think about when drafting your team. Some of these tips are my secrets to success and I've lived by these general tips. Trust me, they are valuable.

• Pitching is what wins your league.
  Even though pitching is important, it is not wise to draft a pitcher in the first few rounds unless an ace type pitcher slips to you. Don't reach for a tier 2 type pitcher in round 2 or 3 because the top 3 guys are gone and people are drafting pitchers.
  
• Always think about value when drafting. When there is a run on certain positions, don't follow. Some of the best valued players come during runs.
  
• Don't waste your bench on position players. Draft a couple of guys like someone who has slipped and should have been drafted sooner or even a sleeper, but don't just draft a guy just to sit on your bench for nothing. Your bench should be saved for pitching mostly.
  
• When drafting pitchers, try to target guys that have high strikeout potential with a low WHIP. This formula is why year after year I've put together some great pitching staffs. If a guy has a great WHIP and a good K rate, most of the time it means he's going to get you lots of quality starts.
  
• Don't reach on closers. This is the most simple thing to follow. Closers are plentiful. Getting an elite closer will cost you because you have to draft them early. I always use the quanity method over quality. Follow the same WHIP and K-rate rules when getting a closer. You don't want a closer who doesn't strike people out and just gets saves. They may get you saves but it will cost you in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. That's why when I draft closers I don't even look at the Saves category.

I could go on and on but this is good enough info to get you started. These are just general rules to follow. Drafts are unpredictable so each one is different. Have a plan but be open to changes in it when your draft goes in a way you weren't expecting. Good luck!

NFL Draft and the Number 1 Pick

With one big game left to play, Super Bowl XLII, the NFL draft is lurking less than 3 months away. It's already being discussed by "draft experts" and the media. And if they can do it, then I guess it's time for me to give you my take on it. These "experts" will flip flop their boards every week, which I never seem to understand why, leading up to draft day. They've seen these guys play in college. They have 3 or 4 years of work and video on them to watch. After all that, they even get to to see most of them in the Senior Bowl up close. Why the flip flop? (And there's my rant of the day).

The Dolphins have the first pick in the upcoming draft. If I could trade the pick I would because of the ungodly amount guaranteed money you have to spend (not to mention dealing with a lengthy holdout you most certainly have to deal with). The Dolphins know this and, of course, try and trade the pick. They know to sign the first pick, you'd have to give the player at least a $60 million deal with about $38 million of it in a guaranteed money. That's w/o ever seeing them in uniform. That's a serious commitment. If you're wrong about the selection, it could set your franchise back 3 to 4 years. Committing that much money (and salary cap space) to a player you've never seen play in your system is just plain crazy, but that is the NFL way. I've complained about it for too many years and it doesn't do any good so I'll leave it there.

Having talked about the crazy money and commitment it takes to sign a top pick, let's look more at trading the pick. Well, every team knows what it's going to take to sign that pick. There is one, and only one, reason that would make a team trade for that pick. They'd have to be in love with a certain player. This year, there is no true prospect who every scout believe to be that clear cut guy. Most "experts" believe the best player in the draft is Darren McFadden. I've written my opinion on McFadden in my very first blog topic so I won't elaborate any more on that subject. The most common guy, the "experts" seem to agree upon going to the Dolphins, is LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.

While I don't doubt Dorsey to be a great NFL pro, I'll argue that no defensive tackle is worth the number 1 pick and that kind of money. You're going to give $60 million to "space taker"? He's not the kind of player who sacks the QB very often. To me, you're basically drafting New England defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. Wilfork is a great football player. Granted, Wilfork will kill your offensive scheme if you don't account for him and he'll draw double teams and wreak havoc on your running game, but very rarely will he sack the QB. That's not his "purpose". Wilfork's purpose, like Dorsey's, is to clog up the middle and be disruptive. He's the kind of guy who the great LBs of the league want on their team. He'll eat up blockers, freeing up the great LBs in this league to make the tackles. Now having said all that, do you know what selection Wilfork was for the Patriots? He was selected in the first round with the 21st overall pick in 2004.

The difference between Dorsey and Wilfork is media hype. That's it. When Wilfork played for the Canes he was on a team of stars. Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow II, Jonathan Vilma, D.J. Williams, and Vernon Carey were all teammates selected before Wilfork in the first round of that 2004 draft. LSU doesn't have those kind of players to take the spotlight off of Dorsey. So Dorsey is benefiting from that standpoint.

I think Dorsey will be a fine pro and a definite early first round pick. I'm not saying he's not valuable. My argument is that he is not a franchise type player. Heck, arguably the greatest defensive tackle to ever play the game (like him or not) is Warren Sapp. Even he wasn't selected until the 12th pick of the first round. Do I need a better argument? I'll even argue that USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is every bit as good as Dorsey. I've seen Ellis play in 2 games this year and he's made more of an impression on me than Dorsey.

I've talked about what I wouldn't do if I had the number one pick. Now let me tell you what I would do. In my opinion there are 3 things to have in order to be a successful organization consistently. 1st, you need a QB. The Dolphins do not have one. John Beck is probably not the answer. He's adequate at best. Adequate doesn't win you championships, unless you're really good at the other two winning components. 2nd, you need an offensive line to protect your precious QB, and there's not a more important cornerstone for an O-line than the left tackle. 3rd, you need a great pass rusher or two. There's not a better defense than one who can rush the passer. You think the New York Giants are in the Super Bowl because of Eli Manning, like the flip flopping media is talking about? No, Eli just didn't mess it up. It was the NFL's leading sack unit that got them there. Eli suddenly didn't become Peyton Manning. A great pass rush will even eliminate your weaknesses in your defensive secondary. The Giants don't have any "shutdown" corners. What they have is an awesome pass rush coming from the defensive line.

Having giving you my opinion for building a great football team, let's get back to the draft. You know Dorsey is out. You know McFadden is out. Who's left you say? Here are the 3 guys I'm choosing between and in order, Boston College QB Matt Ryan, Michigan OT Jake Long, and Virginia DE (son of former NFL great pass rusher Howie Long) Chris Long. Those are my top 3 picks in the draft.

This past year, Ryan's senior year, he threw for 4,507 yards, 31 TDs, and 19 Int. Those may not be eye popping numbers but keep in mind that Boston College has almost no NFL prospects on their offense. Even big college football fans can't name one other player that plays offense on BC. I know I can't without looking it up. Another plus is he didn't play in an offensive system that is known to put up big stats. Did you know that Tom Brady threw for 2,217 yards, 16 TDs and 6 Ints in his senior season at Michigan? Not to say that Ryan will be Tom Brady. All I'm trying to say is that Brady didn't play on a team known to have their QBs put up big numbers. The spread offenses that almost every college team runs now days makes it harder to identify a true QB. But, I can tell you that BC is not known for running a spread offense. Another point I want to make about Ryan is had he played for USC, for example, everyone would be foaming at the mouth that he's the next great QB and no way would he not be drafted at the number 1 slot. It's the truth.

Going along with my formula for success, Jake Long would be the next best choice. He's the kind of left tackle that will be playing 10-12 years and will protect your QB for a long time. The argument for taking Jake at number 1 over Ryan is that it's harder to miss with good offensive tackles. Let's do a little draft review of the first offensive tackles taken off the draft board other than me just telling you. 2007: Cleveland Browns took Joe Thomas with the 3rd pick (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). 2006: The NY Jets took D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the 4th pick, still the starter. In 2005 New Orleans Saints took Jammal Brown with the 13th pick (selected to 2006 Pro Bowl). In 2004 the Oakland Raiders took Robert Gallery with the second pick, starter but is considered a failed pick and has since been moved to offensive guard. In 2003, Carolina Panthers selected JORDAN GROSS with the 8th pick, still a starter. In 2002, the Buffalo Bills selected Mike D. Williams, who is no longer on the team and is considered a bust. In 2001 the Arizona Cardinals selected Leonard Davis, who signed with the Cowboys in 2007 (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). You see. Only one bust out of the last 6 drafts. That's good odds. So The Dolphins can play it safe and take Jake Long and it wouldn't be a bad choice. Chances are he'll be the staple of the line for years to come.

The 3rd player, according to my formula, is Chris Long. He played for a Virginia defensive scheme that is not designed to get great sack numbers from individuals but yet he still finished his senior season with 14 sacks. Chris Long is a can't miss prospect. He's got the bloodlines and the numbers. He's been in the NFL world his whole life because of his dad. Howie Long, I have no doubt, has taught him how to be a professional. He's been taught right and he's a gifted pass rusher. If by chance the Dolphins select Chris Long, he will make current Dolphin's DE Jason Taylor's job that much easier and the Dolphins defense better instantly.

It all boils down to this for Dolphin GM Jeff Ireland and VP Bill Parcells. If you want the safe picks, it will be either Jake Long or Chris Long. If you want a "probable" franchise QB, you'd have to take Matt Ryan. Either way those picks are winners in my book and worth the kind of money you'd have to pay them. If they believe in John Beck, then it's time to choose between the Longs. If not, you have to take Matt Ryan. There you have it. It's that easy. Now if I only had Bill's phone number.



Super Bowl XLII prediction: Patriots beat the Giants 28-24 in the highest TV rated Super Bowl in history.

Derrick Rose - Joey Dorsey - The NBA

The current NCAA number 1 team, the Memphis Tigers, has several NBA prospects on their team. Of the future NBA players on the team, I want to discuss the only two players who will actually stick around in the NBA. Those two players are Derrick Rose and Joey Dorsey. The Tigers have other player that will play in the NBA, but these two players, to me, will be the only legitimate household (NBA watchers) names.

Memphis has sent many players to the NBA in recent years, but none were "can't miss" prospects in my opinion. For example, Shawne Williams (1st round pick), Rodney Carney (1st round pick), and Darius Washington (undrafted free agent) are recent Tigers who are currently playing in the NBA. They were all considered superstars for the Tigers, but none have actually translated into legitimate players in the NBA.

The reason I'm singling out Derrick Rose and Joey Dorsey is because I honestly have no doubt these guys are future big name NBA ballers. I have current NBA players in mind that these players careers will mirror. I haven't watched a whole lot of college basketball this year except for a few Tiger games so I don't know what the game announcers are saying. All I know is what I see. And as I've stated in my blog before I feel as if I have an eye for projecting talent to the next level. I'm going to compare these two players into what I see their NBA careers to be like.



First, I'm going to talk about Joey Dorsey. He stands at 6' 9", 260 lbs. The current NBA player who I see him becoming is current Chicago Bulls player Ben Wallace . Wallace is also listed at 6' 9" (although he's probably closer to 6' 7") but he's a little lighter, weighing 240 lbs. Dorsey, to me, is actually more of a physical player than Wallace. Wallace is, what most NBA experts consider to be, a very physical player. Wallace, in his prime, was considered one of the best rebounding and shot blocking forces in the NBA. He was very athletic and and a unique player. I see Dorsey being that same type player. The only thing that will hold Dorsey back from becoming the next Ben Wallace is his tendency to get into foul trouble. Dorsey is more physically gifted than Wallace (that's saying a lot) but I question his basketball IQ. At any rate, Dorsey will stick around in the NBA because his physical gifts are good enough to overcome his short comings. There are great coaches in the NBA that can teach him. That's not a knock on Memphis coach John Calipari. I love John Calipari, and think he's a great college basketball coach. He's a great recruiter and motivator. He gets those kids to play hard. I just don't think he's the best teacher when it comes to elevating a player's game. In the NBA (most NBA teams anyway) the head coaches are great at making the best of a player's talent.

Now let me talk about Derrick Rose. I think Rose is the NBA draft's 1st selection this year. Whatever team drafts him will essentially be drafting, a slightly less physical and a more gifted shooter, Baron Davis . Rose is 6' 3" 190 lbs. Davis is 6' 3" 215 lbs. Anyone who's watched Baron Davis knows what kind of compliment that is. There's only one knock on Davis and that's his durability issues. So far Rose hasn't had those issues. Davis is a complete point guard. He can take over a game with his scoring and, at the same time, be unselfish with the basketball. Rose has those same abilities.

There are few NBA point guards in existence who have those qualities. Most point guards who have that unselfish mentality can't really shoot that well. And point guards who are great scores don't really pass unless they have to. There's a short list of guys in the NBA currently who have those characteristics. They are (in my personal ranking order) Steve Nash , Chris Paul , Baron Davis, Deron Williams , and Chauncey Billups . That's it. You can now add Derrick Rose to that group.

Rose is not only star for the Tigers, he's also a future superstar in the NBA. I'm not saying anything most people don't already think or know with that statement, but I am taking the how good he'll be to the next level. I haven't heard any 'experts" go as far into it as I have. And don't worry, anything I post as far as predictions go will become future posts to grade myself on. If you're a consistent reader of this blog you'll see me grade myself on all predictions.

Making Sense of Why Isiah Thomas Still Has a Job

This is the most ridiculous thing in the NBA right now. How in the world does Isiah Thomas still have a job? How does an executive keep his job after making one bad deal after another? Just what he’s done in the past year can be grounds to fire someone. I mean if a sexual harassment lawsuit doesn’t get you fired then I guess putting together the worst roster in the NBA in addition to having the highest payroll won’t matter.

I do have a theory on why he still has a job. It’s not a very sound one but given how owner James Dolan seems not to have any sense it could be plausible.

Say what you want about Isiah and his GM skills but he does have a decent track record when it comes to coaching. He was successful at it when he was a head coach for the Pacers many years ago. When the Knicks fired newly hired head coach Larry Brown after a horrendous year Isiah took over the coaching duties. Brown, however, had $40 million on left on his contract that was guaranteed. The Knicks and Coach Brown later settled on a $18 million buyout. Now that Isiah was the head coach and GM it saved Dolan from having to pay two people to do the coaching. To get a big name coach they’d probably have to pay out at least $5 million a year. This is Isiah’s second year in a dual role. After completing this season, Dolan has essentially saved $10 million of the $18 million due to Brown by having Isiah in the dual role. One more year and Brown’s contract in addition to Isiah coaching in his place becomes a wash. That’s my theory anyway. Another thing to factor is that even though Dolan has public pressure to fire Isiah financially he’s doing the right thing. A month ago the Knicks somehow topped Forbes Magazine as the highest valued franchise in the NBA despite their turmoil at $604 million so it’s not like the guy is losing money. But just because you are making money doesn’t mean you have to waste money.

Every year he’s been on the job, Isiah has set the Knicks back by making one bonehead acquisition or transaction after another. Example: everyone knew acquiring Zack Randolph to play alongside Eddy Curry wouldn’t work because they both were post players. They don’t complement each other. Just like Marbury (who’s now injured) and Jamal Crawford don’t complement each other. That roster is a mess of players who will never gel.

If the Knicks ever hope to become successful again they’ll need to fire Isiah and be patient. Isiah has created something that no GM or coach could fix in less than 3 years. The sooner they get Isiah out of there the sooner the rebuilding can begin. His track record says that every move he makes sets the Knicks back 1 more year. If Dolan has any sense left (which most people will question) he’ll let Isiah go after this year and block him from doing any more moves. If he does that the NBA will be a better league. I don’t like the Knicks but they are making a mockery of the NBA with

Grading My Fantasy Football Predictions

While I didn't do this on my blog I still wanted to review my predictions for the 2007 fantasy football season. It was a mixed review:

Best WR: Terrell Owens- Not Steve Smith! T.O. will be the best WR in the league. This year, with Parcells out, T.O. will have his best season since his first year with the Eagles. I expect a minimum 14 TD’s.
Grade: A-. First, no one in their right mind would have predicted Randy Moss to score an NFL record 23 TDs. That counts as the minus part of the A. I predicted TO to score a minimum 14 TDs and he scored 15 TDs without playing the last game due to an ankle injury. In fact, he was 95 yards and a TD from having his best season ever which I firmly believe he would have gotten had he played the last game of the season. He did finish as the second best WR in fantasy overall scoring. Steve Smith was nowhere in sight.

This year’s Marques Colston: James Jones WR/Packers- First, I want to confess something. Last year I am the person who picked up Colston before the season began. Although, I did see some talent there, I only picked him up because he qualified as a TE in Yahoo! scoring. I thought I could play someone who got WR looks at the TE position. I never intended on playing him at WR. I never thought he would produce those kinds of numbers as a rookie. Now back to Jones. Regardless of how the Donald Driver injury plays out or where he is on the depth chart, Jones is going to make an impact. I’m not saying to expect Colston type numbers, I’m saying Jones is a guy who was an unknown and will make a fantasy impact, just like Colston did.
Grade: D. I was looking OK on this pick after the first 8 weeks of the season. Jones was making a name for himself but tailed off the second half of the season. All I predicted would be he would be a relevant contributor to the fantasy format and he was (in the first 8 games) and wasn't (in that last 8 games). Not the best prediction here but moving on.

Best TE other than Antonio Gates: Chris Cooley- I think Cooley is coming into his own. Last year, there were 4 TE’s that scored 6 or more TD’s after week 5. Gates and Crumpler had 7 each, Shockey and Cooley had 6 scores. Want another stat. Cooley has had 3 years in a row where he’s scored at least 6 TD’s. Only two other TE’s in the league can claim that. That’s Gates and Shockey. This year, for the first time in his career, there’s a little stability at QB with the Redskins. Campbell is no Peyton or Carson, but he is reliable. Shockey is high on this list as well. In fact, if it wasn’t for some injury concerns and the erratic play of little Manning, Shockey would be the clear cut number 2. Another person you could argue for the number 2 spot (some experts do have him number 2) is V. Davis. I can see why, but has Davis really done anything yet? He has loads of potential and he may get there, but how many former NFL players have had that label? I’ll take a guy who has proven that he can produce.
Grade: C. Well I didn't exactly knock this out of the park. Cooley did have a career year. He did have 786 yards and 8 TDs, both career bests, and good for 5th in ESPN leagues. Of course no one would have predicted Jason Witten to be the best TE in the league OVER Gates in 2007. Meanwhile, the highly drafted TE Vernon Davis finished 14th and Shockey finished 11th (missing the final 2 games with injury). I'd say I did good but not great in that prediction.

Best RB who wasn’t drafted (or rated) in the top 5: Laurence Maroney- Some of you already know my feelings on Maroney. Maroney just excites me. By season’s end, Maroney will be considered a top 5 pick for next year’s draft. NE is not a passing team. They are a balanced team. Did you know that the Patriots scored 20 rushing TD’s last year? Dillon had 13 and Maroney had 6. If old, broken down Corey Dillon can score 13 TD’s in a part time role, how many TD’s will Maroney score as the lone back in that offense? I say 15 at the minimum. I saw one ESPN expert say that he has concerns with Maroney’s tackle-breaking ability. He had Maroney ranked near the bottom of the second round. What?!!! Maroney bulldozes people and runs like a train! He’s fast, elusive, and powerful. If any of you saw Maroney run at the University of Minnesota and in a part time role, run with the Patriots last year, you’d agree with me. As long as that shoulder stays intact, you can book Maroney as a top 5 pick in the 2008 draft.
Grade: D and B: Before you you go postal on my grading here please let me explain. Maroney, scoring wise, finsihed 24th among fantasy RBs despite missing 3 games with an injury. While I'll admit he didn't put up the numbers I thought he would, I refuse to say he's not as talented as I said he was. People are seeing what Maroney can do if given the opportunity by the way he's played during the playoffs. He's been given the ball over the past month including the playoffs and produced like a number 1 fantasy back.

Maroney's rookie numbers were 175 carries for 745 and 6 TDs. That's a 4.3 average. This year, Maroney's numbers where 185 carries for 835 yds and 6 TDs. That's a 4.5 average. He actually had a better season than his rookie year. The thing I didn't factor in is how much the addition of Moss and Welker would factor in to how many carries Maroney would get.

The last five games (including the playoffs) Maroney has averaged 21 carries for 110 yard and a TD a game. That's a 5.2 average. As I stated in my very first blog topic, it's also about opportunities. Granted, that doesn't help you much with your fantasy team now but it's still a legitimate argument. You CAN'T predict coaches. I can only predict players. Maroney is the real deal. Don't be surprised if he is the Super Bowl MVP.

Will NFL Head Coaches Ever Learn?

When are these NFL coaches going to learn to stop pulling their players during the last few weeks of the regular season? It's no coincidence that the teams that make the most of their playoff run aren't rusty. No head coach has been worse about this than Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy. Dungy has had one of the top 2 teams in every year in the past 4 years yet he's made only one trip to the Super Bowl. The one trip he made came in 2006 in which Peyton Manning and the Colts played all 16 of their games and ended up winning the Super Bowl by beating the Chicago Bears.

Let me give you some history. In 2004, the year that Manning threw for then NFL record 49 TD passes, Manning and most of the starters didn't play but 1 series in the final game of the season that year. No one seems to mention or even be aware that Tom Brady would not own the NFL record for TD passes had Manning played a full 16 games that year. Manning would still have the record if he had played that final game. That's all I'll say about that. Getting back to the point, the Colts lost to the Patriots in the Divisional Playoffs to end their year in 2004.

The Patriots in 2004 had the best record in the NFL at 14-2. They had secured home field advantage going into their final game. But, and here's the big difference in coaching, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick played his starters in that "meaningless" game. They played and won that final regular season game and took that momentum into the playoffs. When the Colts played the Patriots guess who was sharper. The Patriots won and went on to win the Super Bowl.

In 2005, this time it was the Colts who had secured home field advantage and again took the final week off. They played their starters for 1 series and had a bye week before playing the Steelers in the Divisional Playoffs.

The Steelers had scratched and clawed the whole season just to make the playoffs that year. They got a Wild Card birth with a win in the final game of the season. But they also had some momentum. Coming off of a win in the Wild Card round, the Steelers faced a Colts team that had not played football in nearly 3 weeks. The Colts were the better team and no one would argue that (maybe Steelers fans). The Colts were just a bit off their game. They ended up losing to the Steelers, who ended up winning the Super Bowl.

I already mentioned in my opening paragraph that the Colts won the Super Bowl in 2006 with the "coincidence" of having to play all 16 games. They didn't even have a playoff bye week that year. they had to play in every round of the playoffs and even had to win on the road (at Baltimore) to get to and finally win the Super Bowl.

This year (2007), the Colts once again had a "meaningless" final week of the season. Dungy played his starters a bit more by playing them for 1 quarter. All I could hear echoing in my brain while seeing Dungy pull his starters were the famous words of NY Jets head coach (now with KC) Herman Edwards, "Hello!?! You play to win the game!" Those words should be preached every week in every NFL locker room. Dungy, once again, took the his foot off the gas. Once again, he allowed his team to "relax". Once again, had nearly 3 weeks off. Once again, they lost in the Divisional round. Meanwhile, the Patriots are going after a perfect season by playing every game with that killer instinct. They never took their feet off the gas. They've won 18 games in a row by being just plain ruthless.

The Giants, who are playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, played a "meaningless" game in their final week VS. those same Patriots. They got blasted by most of the media for playing their starters in a game that meant nothing. They lost the game but gained some confidence by just about beating the best team on the planet. They had a few injuries in that game but had gained the most important two things there are in sports, confidence and momentum. The Giants isn't even in the top five of the NFL's best teams this year but they did "play to win the game". Now they are going to play the Patriots in what I think will be a very fun Super Bowl. For once I'll be looking forward to watching the game as much as I'll be looking forward to watching the commercials.

In closing, I'd like to give Tony Dungy a little advice. "Hello!?! You play to win the game!"

Fantasy Baseball VS. Fantasy Football

Baseball season is around the corner and that means it’s time to start thinking about fantasy baseball. Most people find fantasy baseball to be too long and too hard to keep up with for a whole season. The 162 games and daily lineup changes are frowned upon. People think it’s just too hard and lose interest by the allstar break. I have a completely different attitude about it, however. I think fantasy baseball is the purest form of fantasy sports competition. There is very little luck involved. If you win in baseball it is earned. The same reasons why people don’t like fantasy baseball are the same reasons why the game is the best. You can’t cry luck if you lose.


Fantasy football is like playing blackjack at the casinos. You know how to play the game. You play the odds and you still have over 50% chance of losing. In Football, you know how to play the game. You play the matchups. You have superior players than your opponent and yet you lose 111-55 that week. It’ll drive you to pull your hair out. And yet most people enjoy that game the most. Charge a league fee of $50 for football and you’ll have 14 people wanting to get into a 12 team league. Ask for $50 for a 10 team league in baseball and you may get 2 people if you’re lucky.


I can understand why people watch football over baseball. The pace of the game is much faster in football. Personally, I enjoy football more and would watch it with or w/o a fantasy league. I’m not sure I could say the same for baseball unless it’s the final month of the season. But when you’re asking me to play something for money I want to play something where I know luck is not a big deciding factor. You control your own success in baseball. You control nothing in football. I’ve never been bitter in any fantasy baseball season because I didn’t win. I just learn from my mistakes and try to do better the next season. In football, every year I’m bitter and miserable it seems. Even in the successful years I almost hate the game. I play it because I love competition. Given the choice between a $50 football league and a $50 baseball league I chose baseball every time. I feel I have equal knowledge of all 3 major sports (football, baseball, and basketball). My knowledge of the game is no factor of which fantasy sport I enjoy the most. It has to do with control. In baseball I have complete control and that’s why I choose baseball.

Are You Jonesing?

50 Bucks- Yeah that's how much it's gonna cost you to see a couple of has beens Roy Jones Junior and Felix Trinidad fight this Saturday. No thank you. Don't get me wrong. I love Roy but his fighting career ended 2 years ago. I can't believe people would pay to watch this fight. In fact, I've seen the fight before. Jones is going to fight in round 1. After that, he'll dance around and act like he's fighting for 11 rounds. He'll dive in and dive out. He's going to shuffle his feet and try to get a rise out of the crowd. I don't know who's going to win and don't really care but save yourself some money.

3 Million- Yikes! The Cowboys just forked up that much to resign their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The Cowboys stepped up to make sure no team would sign their guy to a head coaching job by giving him as much money as Wade Phillips the head coach makes. It's also a record contract for an offensive coordinator. Now that's just plain silly. Will Garrett turn out to be a great head coach one day? Who knows but he hasn't even proved that he's a great offensive coordinator yet. I mean all he did was direct Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber, Jason Witten, and a good offensive line to a good season. Those are exceptional players. They'd probably put up points in almost any offensive system. Garrett was a QB coach with the Dolphins before signing on with the 'Boys last year. No one was breaking down any doors to get him then. Again, I have nothing against the guy but I just don't understand where all this hoopla came from about a 1st year offensive coordinator with a loaded roster.

I've had a very busy week and haven't been able to put the time into the new blog as I intended, but next week things should get back to normal and I'll get the blog in gear.

Introduction

Since I’ve always had a desire to be a scout or GM of a professional sports organization, I’ve decided to dedicate a blog to it. I know my dream is more likely to be a “pipedream” than reality, but I did want to test myself by being accountable. It will not be the only topic that I cover. I will also cover other sports topics both fantasy and reality. I'll talk about general everyday sports subjects when inspired to do so. But the thing that inspired this blog is my "inner GM". Hopefully, my desire and ego to be right about sports will help me to continue writing about it. As always, if I feel that people read it and enjoy it, that will give me the fuel to continue. So w/o further delay here's the first topic...

NFL Draft Gem

With the NFL draft just around the corner, it’s time to start evaluating some future stars of the league. I feel I’m better at evaluating offensive talent than defensive talent so most of my football topics will be about offensive players. Every once in a while I’ll give an opinion of the defensive side of the ball.

Most people who follow football know who the best RB coming out of college is this year. Darren McFadden will be the first RB drafted. There’s no argument there, but if I was running an NFL team, I wouldn’t want to pay a RB the money it would take to sign a top 5 pick at that position. The RB position is the easiest to fill in football. Unless you have a true superstar like Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson there is no reason to fork over that amount of money on your RB. You should save the $50/$60 million contracts for franchise QBs or for dominant defensive players.

While I believe that McFadden is a going to be a good RB I don’t believe he is the same can’t miss RB that Adrian Peterson was/is. To me, the best value at RB is Rashard Mendenhall, the junior at Illinois. He’s a smaller back than McFadden at 5’11” but he stands at 210 lbs. To me that’s a prototypical RB. I’d rather have a RB at 5’11” than 6’2” or 6’3”. The taller backs are bigger targets and are more susceptible to bigger hits. McFadden stands in at 6’2” 210 lbs. Mendenhall runs a 4.45-4.48 (highest-lowest times) 40 yard dash compared to McFadden’s 4.42-4.45. Their speeds are similar. Neither player is in danger of getting caught from behind.

I’m going out on a limb and saying that Mendenhall will have as good of if not better career as McFadden. Obviously, it will depend on what team drafts him and how they utilize him. You could be the best RB in the world but if your coach is too stupid or has too much loyalty to the veteran he would be replacing you can’t control that. Vikings coach, case in point, didn’t give the starting nod to Adrian Peterson this year until after week 6. Everyone on the planet knew that the Peterson should be the starting ball carrier but he stubbornly kept veteran Chester Taylor as the starter. But Peterson’s talent finally forced his hand and he ended up giving in. The Vinkings, coincidently, became a playoff contender with Peterson running the rock as a starter. Imagine if Peterson was the day one starter. The Vikings would have made the playoffs and who knows what they could have done. Coaches can derail a career just by not utilizing their players’ talent correctly. Shaun Payton, the N.O. Saints coach is another fine example of not using his players (Reggie Bush) correctly but that’s another blog topic by itself.

My point is whatever team ends up with Rashard Mendenhall, they will have the steal of the draft. His contract will be a bargain and if given the opportunity to shine you’re looking at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.