NFL Power Rankings

We’re getting to the point where the NFL season goes into another gear. My top 20 teams. I didn't include any teams that I thought had no chance to get in to the playoffs.

1. NY Giants (10-1) – The defending Super Bowl Champs have been playing lights out since the playoffs last year. Amazing what confidence does to a team. Lose your best two defensive players during the offseason….no problem. The running trio of Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw (AKA Earth, Wind, & Fire) have been unstoppable. Eli Manning has been playing efficient and steady for this team as well. They have their work cut out for them with games against Washington, Dallas, & Carolina in three of their next four weeks but it really hasn’t mattered who they have been playing lately.

2. Tennessee Titans (10-1) – A loss to the red hot Jets has brought the Titans back down to earth a bit. The formula to beat this team is stopping the run. Collins has shown he is an OK QB but he can’t put this team on his back. The Titans just don’t have enough talent in the passing game to win w/o running the ball against a good team. Collins may be able to make some plays but with the Titans defense playing less than dominant lately there is too much on his shoulders. The Titans have to get back to running the ball 35 times a game and playing defense. They are a team that wins ugly and I think they forgot their own identity. Sometimes a loss wakes you up. Sometimes a loss gives another team the formula to beat you though. Let’s see what the Titans do from here.

3. Pittsburg Steelers (8-3) – The Steelers are a model of how a franchise should be run. They have a great defense that is relentless. They have a tough big play QB. They run the ball with power and play with a nasty attitude. No one wants to play the Steelers at Heinz Field. If this team has any issues, it is in the offensive line because they tend to get their QB killed at times. But they have the right QB in there to take those shots and get right back up. Not a Steelers fan but this team is tough and plays gritty, tough, and entertaining football.

4. NY Jets (8-3) – The Jets are here because, well they have beaten the once unbeaten Titans. They are hot and playing great football. Favre is playing well and put on a clinic in the short passing game against the Titans. I am skeptical though. This team really has the making of the flavor of the month rather than a serious championship caliber team. I just don’t buy into all that Bret Favre stuff. This team is just on a high right now and I will come down a bit.

5. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) – The Cowboys are slowly but surely starting to build a little momentum. Romo is back and this team just can’t win w/o him. But how many teams can win w/o their superstar QB? Not many. All I have to say is don’t forget about this team. Too much talent and when they are rolling there isn’t much to stand in their way. They also have many combustible parts so anything is possible.

6. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) – Don’t look now but the Colts are starting to gain some traction. Team Peyton seems to have finally gotten into a groove offensively. Maybe this year, without trying to rest their starters, they might actually make some noise in the playoffs. The only Super Bowl ring Manning and Dungy have won was the year they got in as a wildcard team. Their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way except for the last game of the season when the Titans are in town. The Colts could easily be 12-4 to finish the season.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) – Gotta give credit to Coach Gruden here. No one has done more with less than the Bucs’ coach. He has a top tier defense but offensively this team has very little talent, but somehow this team wins. I don’t think they will make much noise in the playoffs but again I gotta give credit for getting this team to 8 wins so far.

8. Carolina Panthers (8-3) – Carolina is another team that I was very skeptical about. I will say I was wrong. The RB tandem DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart has been exemplary. The passing game is also formidable with S. Smith and Muhammad out there catching balls from Jake Delhomme. The defense has been above average and this team comes to play on most weeks. I’m not sold this team has a playoff run but will say this team can’t be taken lightly.

9. New England Patriots (7-4) – There are some people floating the idea that Matt Cassell should be retained by the Patriots and trade away Tom Brady? What!? I thought I’ve heard it all before but this is just plain crazy. The Patriots are a good but not great team. As good as they can be one week is as beatable they can be in another. They have some talent and terrific coaching but they don’t have enough to beat some of top teams on this list in the playoffs.

10. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) – If the Cardinals had home field advantage I’d be all over this team for an upset special run. But they don’t. This team finally lost their first game at home to the Giants this past week. I’d have to say if it were me voting, the MVP of the season thus far is Kurt Warner. Brees and the Saints are just so Jekyll and Hyde and don’t come to play every week. Don’t forget that Warner is also on a pace to beat Dan Marino’s single season yardage mark as well as Brees. Brees may have the better numbers but it isn’t by that much. The Cardinals will give anyone they play in the playoffs fits.

11. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) – This is another team that is oh so dangerous. I don’t think this team is consistent enough to put the string of games it takes to go to the Super Bowl, having said that, this team can beat ANYONE in a one game playoff. Whoever draws this team in round 1 is in for a fight. I still think they are trying to find their identity on offense but make no mistake the Flacco kid can play. But the playoffs are a different animal for a rookie QB.

12. Washington Redskins (7-4) – The NFC East is so strong that it is conceivable that the Redskins could finish with a 10-6 record and still miss the playoffs. The Giants will win the division but the Redskins will have to pound it out with the Cowboys and could very well be on the outside looking in. Lots of football has to be played to decide the wildcard mess in the NFC.

13. Atlanta Falcons (7-4) – This team is light years ahead of where they should be. I don’t think this team makes the playoffs but they are in the mix. I felt they needed to be acknowledged for their accomplishments after the disaster year they had last year. They are building a nice team in Atlanta with Matt Ryan leading the ship.

14. New Orleans Saints (6-5) – It’s time for us to call the Saints what they are. They are under achievers. As fun as their offense is to watch this team doesn’t know how to win. There is too much talent on this offense to be sitting at 6-5. But here we are again and another year where the Saints are more than likely out of the playoffs. Nothing this team has done over the past 3 years gives me any hope this team has a strong run in them.

15. Miami Dolphins (6-5) - Hey if I can include the Saints in this I have to include the Fins. They are the opposite of the Saints. They have far less talent on this team but have done much more. Probably not enough to get into the playoffs but they have a soft enough schedule where there is an outside possibility. As bad as Sean Payton has done with his good talent with the Saints Sparano has done the opposite with utilizing his questionable talent with the Dolphins.

16. Chicago, 17. Minnesota, & 18. GB (Who Cares) – None of these teams will do anything in the playoffs but one of these teams will win the NFC North. It will be a one and done scenario so I won’t waste my time or yours.

19. Denver & 20. San Diego (Who Cares)- See 16, 17, & 18.

The New Head Pumpkin for UT

This may be way off but I am going with a gut feeling that current UNC head coach Butch Davis will be the coach of the Tennessee Volunteers next season. Butch has said publically that he was staying at UNC but I don’t believe him.

This is the worst possible thing that can happen. I absolutely hate the Vols. Butch Davis is exactly what the Vols need. Perfect match if you ask me. Davis is no fool. He will either parlay this into a huge contract extension with a huge raise or he will be the new orange pumpkin on the UT sidelines.

Why do I think this will happen? Well for one thing Davis, like Nick Saban, has no loyalties. To Saban’s credit, he left the Dolphins because he was given the highest power and the best contract possible to go back to his true love, which is coaching college football. Davis uses every contract he gets as a stepping stone. He left the Canes, after he swore he was not interested, to go to the Cleveland Browns. Now he has an opportunity to go to the best conference in college football, the SEC. He will get a contract offer from UT on par with Saban’s. He will join a program with a big following and football atmosphere, none of which are available at UNC.

Don’t ever discount a coach’s ego. The ego of Butch Davis + the $$$$ will equal Butch saying so long to UNC and hello to Tennessee. Trust me, it will happen. And the Vols will be back to the nation’s elite teams in less than 3 years. No one is a better recruiter than Butch Davis. No one is better at finding talent than Butch. He not only signs the big time talent he also finds the diamonds in the rough that are under the radar. He did it with the Canes. He is doing it with the UNC and will be doing it with the Vols. As a Vol hater this idea makes me sick.

Running Up the Score

Every week in college football there seems to be a debate on some team running up the score on their opponent. It’s a legitimate debate. On one hand should you show sportsmanship and pull the rains back when you are up 35-0 in the second half? Or should you ease up and run the ball 3 times in a row and punt?

It’s a tough thing. You don’t want to embarrass the other team and their players, but in today’s world where you have one loss teams trying to impress the pollsters to climb over other one loss teams you can’t blame a coach for trying to do what's best for his school. Truth is no matter how much pollsters deny it style points matter.

I’ve been on rooting ends of both sides as a fan. I’ve seen my team fighting for position in a national championship race and whip a team by 50 points and I’ve also been on the receiving end of one of those same beat downs. It makes you mad and embarrasses you as a fan. You want to reach your hands through the TV and choke the opposing coach. You wish for their starting players to break something so you can yell “that’s what you get!”

I think there is a fine line there. The way I look at it is this. It’s all fair game until the team that is getting their brains beat down accepts that it’s not their day. If you have your starters in there trying your best to score, its fair game that I have my players in there trying to stop you. Look, if you want me to stop you have to stop. That’s the mentality you should have.

Coaches can’t have it both ways. If you feel the game is over and you are on offense, take out your starters or run the ball and punt. It shows you admit that you have lost the game. It’s a gesture to the other sideline that says "you win". "Good game and good luck next week". You can’t expect the other team to stop trying if you’re not willing to stop.

You can argue that the team that’s getting blown out needs to work on their offense and correct their mistakes or gain some momentum for next week and that’s why they should keep their starters in there and keep fighting. To me that’s a poor argument. How is your team, that’s getting beat 56-0, improving itself if you are expecting the other team to lay down for you while you try and score? Bottom line is if you’re in there punching me I have the right to punch back. That should be the unwritten rule in sports. It will end the debate once and for all. At least it would in my eyes. When a coach cries foul, all he has to do is look in the mirror.

Recruiting News

I'm getting ahead of myself but it's never too soon to talk about future star running backs. First 2010. I introduce to you Baby Gore....

Jakhari Gore could follow in Frank's footsteps
Class of 2010 ESPNU 150 Watch List running back Jakhari Gore, cousin of former Cane and current San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore, isn't ready to announce yet, but Miami is the leader for his signature.
He told ESPN affiliate Web site InsideTheU.com, "Right now, I am just keeping everything open, but if I was ready to commit I would commit to them (UM). But I talk to my mom everyday about it, to my coach, everyday, we sit down and talk. They tell me to stay focused. I got a whole another year. Keep everything open."


But let's not forget about next year...The number 2 RB in the country has verbally committed to The U. Bryce Brown is 6ft 215 pounds. Watch both of these highlights because he's incredible. Makes me think if he's number 2, who the heck is number 1??

Soph Year


Junior Year




The number 1 recruit at RB is non other than Trent Richards who plays about 40 miles from Pensacola. I had no idea he was in my back yard, wow. Guess I may have to see him play a game. Anyway, he's going to Bama.

Singletary

Last night, I decided to watch the San Francisco 49ers take on the Arizona Cardinals. It was a pretty good game but I wanted to watch the game for two reasons. One was for stupid fantasy football reasons but the other was I wanted to see first hand what difference, if any, Mike Singletary was having on this lackluster football team. During my observation I had a few other thoughts as well.

I have no doubt that the 49ers were somewhat responding to their new coach. They played pretty hard. Let's be real about one thing though. This team has two wanna be QBs (3 if you count Alex Smith). QB play is everything in this league. It separates winners from losers. Talent wise this SF team is no worse than your average NFL team but they lose like some of the worst teams in the league. JT O' Sullivan and Shawn Hill are too inconsistent and too turnover prone to be legit QBs. Look at what the Atlanta Falcons have done in one year with Matt Ryan. The Falcons cleaned house last year. They made two key additions to that team. They got themselves a legit RB and a star in the making at QB. Other than that they really deducted some talent from this roster. But rebuilding the 49ers is not my point here. Just stating a flaw that needs to be addressed.

My point is that Singletary's management skills, or lack there of, can't be disguised. Not when you cost your team a chance to win. Then he throws Martz (offensive coordiantor) under the bus in his press conference by saying he called the play. That made me angry. He is the head coach. Own up to it publically. Yell at Martz in the office but not in the press. When you are preaching "loyalty" and saying you want to keep the locker room "scared" you can't do that.

Singletary's tactics are quickly becoming old. He is using motivational tactics that work in the college game but not in the pros. He is treating this team like kids and NFL players don't usually respond to such tactics. He gets the benefit of being a well respected hard nosed former player. But that honeymoon period is quickly coming to an end. When you do those things and you still lose, players don't want to hear that stuff. Players start thinking "yeah, yeah, blah blah". It also shows what happens when an untested position coach moves all the way up to head coach. It's a different world being THE MAN. Singletary is proving he isn't ready to be there. He is not only losing the goodwill of this team but he may be on his way to losing a chance to coach on any team, even as a positional coach. He had better wake up but I think it's already too late. This team will quit on him at the first sign of trouble.

The BS Poll

With the annual “I hate the BCS” talk around college football I figured it was time for me to rank my own top 8. Why 8? Well because that is the number of teams that need to be playing in a playoff system. The following list is based solely on who I think is the best teams, regardless of record. Just plain ole who is the best football team in MY opinion….

1. USC- I know this is controversial, but to me, this is the best team in the country. Line up any team against this team when it counts and they will win. They did have their annual hiccup to a lesser team but that's out of the way now.

2. Florida- I dislike Tim Tebow and their pompous coach Urban Meyer but this team is good. Yes they have only 4 plays that work but they do those 4 plays really well. Option 1, Tim Tebow up the middle (AKA Fat Boy up the middle). Option 2, lineup WR Percy Harvin in the backfield and hand him the ball. Option 3, Lineup Harvin at WR and run a reverse. Option 4, Pass the ball to Harvin. You would think the defenses could cover 4 plays but they can’t.

3. Alabama- I cringe to put them this high because I don’t believe they are this good yet. But Saban can coach and though I dislike him personally, I have a lot of respect for his coaching ability. His team is playing a year ahead of schedule and to me this is the second best team in the SEC.

4. Texas Tech- This team is offensively almost unstoppable. If they didn’t play in the weak, no defense playing Big 12, I might have more respect for them as a true national title contender. I don't believe they can beat a physical team though.

5. Texas- Texas would be a lot higher if the LB for Texas didn’t drop that sure INT to put Texas Tech away with 1:30 left in the game. I’ve never seen an easier ball dropped in a big situation like that.

6. Penn State- Yes this team is undefeated but they play in a joke for a conference in the (little) Big Ten. It’s not their fault they play nobody but I believe every team ahead of them on this list would give them a beat down. Yeah they beat Ohio State when they were number 9 but no one can tell me Ohio State is top 10 good.

7. Oklahoma- I haven’t seen them play yet this year so they make the list by default.

8. Oklahoma State- I also haven’t seen them play either, but their coach is 40 and is a man so I give them a nod for that.

Others that may cry about not getting into my BS poll: Utah & Boise St. I don’t believe either of these schools could hang with the 8 schools listed ahead of them.

This is so true about Fantasy Football

A paragraph out of ESPN’s Bill Simmons latest article:

“My big epiphany: Really, the fantasy football season isn't fun. Winning is OK; losing is agonizing. You constantly feel awful about your choices and your bad luck; it's the only exercise that causes arguments with friends you normally never would argue with; and you spend roughly a kazillion hours managing your team for the 10 percent chance that you might win your league. There's just not a ton of upside. It's almost like smoking cigarettes -- it started out with good intentions, and it's something to do, and it can be fun in the right moments, but ultimately, there are an inordinate amount of moments when you find yourself leaning out a window in 20-degree weather to puff out a quick cig as your nose gets frostbitten, or bumming a cig from a group of horrible girls and then feeling obligated to talk to them, or waking up in the morning and coughing up your right lung. Really, it's more harm than fun. And yet, we continue to do it. And love it. This entire paragraph made me want to smoke.”

I've never smoked but man I totally agree with every point Bill makes about Fantasy Football. Fantasy Football, I wish I could quit you.

Deadliest Young QB/WR Combo

As the NFL turns, this list will change every year with the constant revolving rosters and injuries in the NFL world. However, one thing is going to be for sure. These guys will always remain in the argument as what QB/WR combo is the deadliest for years to come. And when I say deadliest, I mean the combo that puts the most fear into a defense. Feel free to straighten me out if I miss anyone that excites you.

6. Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson- Going into week 9, Andre Johnson leads the NFL in receptions with 56 and yards with 772. The only thing that keeps AJ from being higher on the list is that he hasn’t been able to find the endzone with any consistency. But make no mistake you can’t have an argument like this w/o his name being in the mix.

5. Any QB/Calvin Johnson- I believe that Calvin Johnson is the most talented WR in the NFL. If the guy ever plays with a good QB he’ll be at the top of this list. He’s only in his 2nd year and I get the feeling that Detroit (now that Matt Millen is gone) will get a QB of relevance this offseason.

4. Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart/Larry Fitzgerald- Fitzgerald was a can’t miss WR coming out of college. He hasn’t done anything but prove those expectations right in his 4.5 seasons in the league. Give the fact he’s got a fantastic WR on the other side (Anquan Boldin) there is no real way to cover him.

3. Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings- One thing is for certain about Rodgers, there is no question who he looks to in the Packers offense. Greg Jennings is option one and two. Rodgers has shown he’s a legit NFL QB and he and Jennings are just getting warmed up. This duo is here to stay for years to come. Rodgers is among the league leaders in passing and Jennings is number 2 in yards. His best days are still ahead of him.

2. Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall- This duo is very scary. Marshall is Terrell Owens good today. This combo has managed to turn the Denver offense into a passing offense. A Mike Shanahan team has always been famous for being one of the best running teams in the NFL. Not anymore. This team is now a pass first team thanks to the unique talents at QB and WR.

1. Matt Ryan/Roddy White- At first it seemed that this combo was a fluke. I’ve taken notice though. I really believe in this combo. If you’ve been following this blog over the past year, you know that I was a big believer in Matt Ryan. He’s playing QB like a veteran in his rookie year. It also helps to have an explosive WR in White. This is no fluke. Week in and week out this combo is getting more and more dangerous. White has unique size and speed and is a threat to score a TD from any point on the field. We’ve seen White’s explosiveness in glimpses but he’s never had a QB that could throw the ball with consistency. Now we all see what he can do with a legit QB.

NBA 2008-2009 Rookies

Sorry for the delay in my blog posting. I’ve had a busy last few weeks. I was out of town and also got married so things have been hectic. Anyway, I want to kick off the new NBA season by talking about some of the individual players to watch this season and what I expect these players.

First I want to talk about the rookies. Most people expect Greg Oden to win Rookie of the Year honors and rightfully so. Some even think it is Michael Beasley. However, I think the rookie of the year will be unanimous this year and that honor will go to OJ Mayo of the Memphis Grizzlies.

Mayo is NBA ready. He’s a natural scorer and has an all around game rivaling some of the superstars in the league. While he’ll have his rookie ups and downs his overall stats will be better than what we saw from last year’s super rookie Kevin Durant.

Durant line from last year was 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, .98 steals, .94 blocks, while shooting at a 43% clip. I believe that Mayo will average around 18 points a game but will do it more efficiently than 43% and his all around game will be better than Durant’s. I expect Mayo to average 2 steals a game and shoot about 45% from the field.

Another player that has caught my attention is NJ Nets Center Brook Lopez. Lopez probably will come off the bench this season but I see some real “big man” talent there. If he gets the minutes, I think he’s a double double lock and will block some shots as well. It remains to be seen how long the Lopez will continue to come off the bench. If he gets the opportunity to start he’ll make some noise at the Center position. Greg Oden is the cream of the crop here but Lopez shouldn’t go forgotten.

Derrick Rose is still on my list of great players out of this rookie class. I don’t include him in the conversation ONLY because it is so hard to succeed in the NBA as a Point Guard in the first year. I think Rose will live up to his draft status but his learning curve is much higher because of the position. He’s got a lot to learn. That’s not to say Rose won’t be relevant this year. I think he’s going to put up some good numbers. I just don’t think it will be OJ Mayo level numbers.

This is how I see it unfolding this year in the Rookie of the Year award. Feel Free to argue…

1. OJ Mayo
2. Greg Oden
3. Michael Beasley
4. Derrick Rose
5. Marc Gasol
6. Brook Lopez

Is It Only A Matter of Time?

There have been lots of rumblings in Miami about offensive coordinator Patrick Nix. The criticism goes from Nix being too conservative to not having his players prepared enough on gameday and even being accused of lousy playcalling. Nix’s response (he joked), “We've petitioned to the NCAA to get an extra 20 hours and get a 40-hour week, but they haven't seemed to buy it yet,". So his excuse (and that’s exactly what it is) is that he doesn’t have enough time to teach his young team his system. He says that 20 hours a week is not a reasonable time for college kids to learn an offensive system in 1 or 2 years.

That response made me think. In his second year, is Nix’s excuse valid? Is it really too much to expect a player to learn an offensive system in a year or even 2? I did some research to see if, indeed, it just takes time. I went searching the rest of college football to see if any of the top offenses in the country had 1st year or 2nd year coordinators. What I found was quite surprising.

-As of Thursday, October 16th, the number 1 offense in the country is University of Tulsa. Gus Malzahn is the offensive coordinator. He’s in his second season. They average 602.2 YPG of total offense. That ranks number 1. They average 53.2 points per game, which also ranks them number 1 in the country. What did Malzahn’s offense do in 2007? In his first season Tulsa averaged 549.6 YPG. That was also good for number 1 in the country. His team scored 41.1 PPG, good for number 6 in the country.

-Dana Holgorsen is in his 1st season as offensive coordinator at Houston. Under Holgorsen, the Cougars boast the number 4 offense in the nation at 561 YPG. They also average 38.5 PPG, which is tied for 14th (Florida) in the country. I want to reiterate this is Holgorsen’s 1st season there.

- Chip Kelly is in his second season as the offensive coordinator at the University of Oregon. His offense currently ranks 12th in the nation at 475.2 YPG and 10th in the nation scoring at 39.7 PPG. In his first season, in 2007, his offense averaged 481.2 YPG which was good for 10th in the country and averaged 38.2 PPG, which was good for 10th.

-Doug Nussmeier is in his first season as offensive coordinator at Fresno State. His offense averages 447 YPG, good for 21 in the country. Fresno puts up 33.2 PPG, good for 30th in the nation.

I only looked up the top 25 offenses because it was a lot of work to find out that information. There were more examples down the line but this is enough to prove my point. Don’t tell me it’s impossible to have success in 1 or 2 years. A good offensive coordinator finds a way to have success. The above guys have found a way to teach their players to execute their system in less than 1 or 2 years. The excuse of not having enough time is not valid.

A Star Has Fallen

I hate to keep talking about the Cowboys here because I am certainly no fan, but you can’t ignore what has happened over the past week…..

-First, Mr. Pacman Jones gets into some fight with his own bodyguard. The bodyguard was of course someone the Cowboys themselves hired to be with him. That is irony at its finest right there. You can’t help but to laugh.

-The Cowboys lollygag around and lose to a lesser Arizona Cardinal team in OT. Add injury to insult they lose QB Tony Romo on the last offensive play of their opening offensive series by a hit on their QB.

-Then on the very next play, when the Cowboys have to punt and already have their QB knocked out for 4 weeks, their punter’s kick gets blocked and AZ recovers for a game ending TD in OT. Again, adding injury to insult, their punter gets his leg broken and he’s out indefinitely.

-During this ever painful game, they also lose promising rookie Felix Jones for up to four weeks with a partially torn hamstring.

-Now we just learned that Pacman Jones will be suspended 4 games by the NFL for the above mentioned incident. When a franchise is willing to give a talented player away you usually find out why sooner rather than later. Jeff Fisher and the Titans have to be laughing.

One week and the Cowboys go from a Super Bowl probable team to a team in shambles. The Cowboys give new meaning to the phrase “Worst Week”. I will admit I can’t help but to laugh at their misery.

"We're Number 1! We're Number 1!"

In the world of the NFL there is no such thing as a “gimme” game. There is no game on the schedule that you can count as an automatic win no matter how bad of an opponent you are facing. Somehow, this idea is lost on the Dallas Cowboys. They are playing uninspired and underperforming football. They have the most talent in the league on that team. It’s a team full of stars and great playmakers on both sides of the ball. Yet, they have only shown glimpses of that so far this season.

Most of the blame for this is on the NFL’s highest paid cheerleader. Wade Phillips is one of the worst coaches in the league today. But he’s at the helm of arguably the league’s greatest franchise. How could this happen? Well, it happens because Wade is a “yes” man.

Jerry Jones, the captain of this ship, is everything Al Davis wishes he could be. He actually is a successful meddler. Nothing goes on in Big D without Jones putting a stamp of approval on it. It’s because of that reason Dallas’ biggest asset (a great owner who goes after great players at any cost) is also the thing that gets in their way.

There aren’t many coaches who can work without the control. Successful coaches want things done their way. It’s because of that they are successful. It’s that ego and the in charge feeling they have which make them who they are. They will take all the blame when they lose and all of the credit when they win, even if it's only done in their mind. That’s why they live and breathe football. It’s the adrenalin rush from having the power in success and defeat that keeps them motivated to coach. They love it.

There is room for one ego per NFL team. That ego belongs to Jerry Jones. That's why Jimmy Johnson left and that's why Parcells grew tired of coaching under Jones.

Bill Parcells is also the guy who said it best in one of his many great press conferences. “If they want you to do the cooking, they can at least let you pick out some of the groceries”. Ok, that’s not exactly word for word but you get the drift. The point is coaches need to feel that total control.

Phillips doesn't fit that bill of a successful coach. He got this gig because Jerry Jones knew he could work with him. He needed someone who would sit across the table and say “yeah, Jerry, I can coach that guy” when Jerry asks him what he thinks. He knows what Jones wants to hear and will gladly agree. It’s not like he has a choice. No other team in the NFL wants him.

For that reason, Wade Phillips got this job. His job is to say yes to Jerry Jones while keeping order in the locker room. By order, I don't mean he puts his foot down. He has to keep his guys happy. He’s like the players’ friend. That’s why they love playing for him. They get to do what they want. But a happy locker room doesn’t translate to a Super Bowl team.

When this team wants to play, there are few teams that can step on the field with them. The problem is they need someone to motivate them to play up to their potential every week. Instead, they look bored. They think they are just going to start playing come playoff time. They don’t have respect for the other teams in the NFL. They expect to win just because they know how good they are. They forget it takes hard work to win in this league. Somehow, the guys in the Cowboys’ locker room are going to have to light a fire under themselves because Philips isn’t going to demand that kind of disciplined. That kind of discipline is brought on by tough love and hurt feelings. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Phillips is their friend. He’s their cheerleader. But he’s no coach.

Monday Football Rewind

The Good

It’s scary but the NY Giants actually look better this year than they did last year. At 4-0, they look like they are getting better and better every week. Eli Manning (so far) looks to be taking the lead in the “which Manning is better?” debate. Stay tuned…..The other lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL, The Tennessee Titans at 5-0, somehow keep finding ways to win. They gave Baltimore its second consecutive heart breaking loss in the final moments of the game. Baltimore outplayed and physically beat up the Steelers and Titans but managed to lose both games…..The Redskins have played some serious football the last few weeks (4 weeks to be exact). They have beaten the Cowboys and the Eagles in consecutive weeks. That is no small task this year. The NFC East arguably has the top four NFC teams in the conference with the Giants, Cowboys, Redskins, and the Eagles…..The Buffalo Bills lost for the first time this season and did so embarrassingly. They got whipped by Arizona 41-17. I think that says more about how good Arizona is at home more so than how good or bad the Bills are. Buffalo is certainly not as good as their 4-1 record though…..Expectedly, the Cowboys walked all over the Bengals to go to 4-1. They played uninspired football minus one huge TD combo of Romo to TO. It doesn’t take much to beat the Bengals.

The Bad

The Bungals are a sad bunch. You can see how frustrated they are with finger pointing and yelling at one another during the game. Palmer is underachieving big time, missing wide open receivers by 10 yards. There is one way out of this for this group, start over. Gotta clean out the roster and bring in new coaching. This combo is a disaster…..Bad teams find a way to lose. If you don’t believe me, ask the Houston Texans, who put a whipping on the Colts only to give the game away with 2 consecutive fumbles in the final minutes of the 4th quarter…..Man, how things have changed in Seattle. The one time perennial contender is quickly becoming irrelevant. I think Mike Holmgren is leaving the team one year too late. Things look pretty bad going forward for this organization…..I’m not going to waste time writing more about the Detroit Lions and the KC Chiefs. Both franchises are several free agency periods and drafts from becoming possibly relevant again.


Fantasy football and Fun with numbers:

Mystery QB 1- 1032 yds, 6 TDs, 1 Int
Mystery QB 2- 1031 yds, 5 Tds, 5 Int

QB 1, well that’s Eli Manning’s numbers through 4 games this season. QB 2, that’s Peyton Manning’s numbers through 4 games.

Mystery RB 1- 331 Yds, 3.7 YPC, 4 TDs
Mystery RB 2- 286 Yds, 4.9, 6 TDs

RB1, that’s LaDainian Tomlinson’s numbers through 5 games this season. RB 2, that’s Ronnie Brown’s numbers through 4 games played this season.

I can go on and on with examples, but the point I’m trying to make is once the season starts in fantasy football, it doesn’t matter where a guy is drafted once you take the name away. Take away a guy’s name and look at the numbers. It doesn’t matter if you drafted the guy in round 1 or round 10. Play your best players according to how they are playing from week to week. You could put yourself in a hole that you can’t dig yourself out of waiting for a big name guy to produce just because you picked him in round 1 or 2. In football it just doesn’t work that way. Once the season starts, throw the draft position and name in the trash and play your guys that have produced.

Why Was Dempster the Cubs’ Game One Starter?

Ok Lou Piniella . I understand wanting to reward your players for having a great season and all, but ask any scout-or baseball writer-or anyone who has any lick of baseball common sense, Ryan Dempster shouldn’t be getting the ball in game one of the playoffs. Especially, when you have two true number one starters in Zambrano and Harden. I don’t care that Zambrano struggled toward the end of the season. Even if you don’t agree that Zambrano should get the ball in game one you can’t argue that Harden shouldn’t get the ball with his ERA around 2.00. Either one of those guys should have gotten the ball instead of Dempster. I just don’t get the logic behind it. It’s short best of 5 series. If facing elimination, the Cubs have to rely on Dempster again to go out and prevent that from happening. I’m sorry, but that just doesn’t give me confidence at all. Even if the Cubs win the rest of their games and advance, it was the wrong move. They put themselves in a bad situation. I don’t want to blow a loss of one game out of proportion, but this is the playoffs now. One move like this could mean disaster for confidence and put added pressure on a team that could have been prevented. Admittedly, I haven't followed the matchup talk leading up to the playoffs so maybe I am not up to date on why this decision was made so feel free to set me straight.

Say what you want about Manny Ramirez, but the one thing you can’t argue is that every team he’s played on has become better. Cleveland made it to two World Series with him in the lineup. Boston won 2 World Series with him. Now the Dodgers, who were struggling before his acquisition, are now a legitimate threat in the NL. The same personality traits that cause Manny to, well , be Manny is the same that allows him to absorb all the pressure off of everyone in a clubhouse. One thing is a constant in every dugout that Manny is a part of. Those teams always look like they are having fun. The Dodgers seem to be having fun for the first time in a decade.

Karma Is Supposed to Be A …..

During the end of the 2005 baseball regular season the Chicago White Sox were in position to win the AL East. They had a four game lead over the second place Indians. Though mathematically possible, it was a long shot for the Indians to catch the Sox because they had to sweep all four games to win the division. The more important race was that the Indians could have gotten into the playoffs as a wildcard instead of the Boston Red Sox. All they had to do was split the series against the White Sox to get in. The Yankees and the Red Sox were locked in a battle along with Cleveland. Well, basically the Indians got swept and the Red Sox and Yankees both got in. Ozzie Guillen, on his trip to the mound to make a pitching change during the game his team eliminated the Indians from playoff contention, gave this disgraceful choking gesture. He thought it was funny. Even for Ozzie Guillen, this was a bad show of sportsmanship.

Turn the clock forward to 2008. The White Sox went into the final series of the season against Cleveland, with a chance to clinch the division. This time Cleveland won 3 out of 4 games, which led to the Sox having to play a makeup game (which they won) against the Tigers. Then they now have to play a makeup game against the Twins in a 1 game playoff for the division and the last playoff birth. Will karma finally strike Ozzie Guillen? It couldn’t happen to a more deserving person, if it does. He is a disgrace to the sport of baseball and unless you are a White Sox fan you probably dislike (I’m being as nice as I can) him like I do. There isn’t a team in baseball I despise more than the Chicago White Sox. So even though my Indians are missing the post season, I am hoping to take pleasure in Ozzie Guillen’s misery. I will take pleasure knowing that the Indians had a hand in their ejection from the playoffs. Tonight I am a Twins fan.

Say goodbye to these NFL coaches

Marvin Lewis-
Marvin Lewis may be looking for a new job by year’s end. This team is in the 3rd consecutive year of a downturn. This once promising offense led by Carson Palmer is below average. The defensive minded Lewis leads a defense to the field who is usually on the ESPN highlights….for the other team’s offense. He has a receiver making more headlines than the team itself. And speaking of Ocho Cinco, please change your name back to Chad Johnson. I liked to watch that guy better. This Ocho Cino person is terrible. After 3 weeks, Ocho Cinco has 8 receptions for 88 yards. Chad Johnson used to beat those numbers by halftime of one game. This team is known for keeping the justice system in Cincinnati in business. All those things equals a need for change with this team. Carson Palmer’s prime years are going to waste.

Herman Edwards-
Herman Edwards and that whole KC organization should be embarrassed. To get blown out this week by a Falcons team who is at the beginning stages of a rebuilding a process, a year after the Michael Vick fiasco, is just plain embarrassing. No other way to put it. Of course to get beat down by an Oakland team that is one of the top 3 worst teams in the league is equally as embarrassing. The offense is horrendous. How’s taking Glenn Dorsey with the 5th overall pick working for you Herm? Remember what I wrote about Glenn Dorsey before the draft? Taking a DT that high in the draft just doesn’t make any sense in terms of smart football. Looking at KC makes me proud to be a Dolphins fan. That’s how bad it is in KC. They need to reboot the system.

Matt Millen-
Ok so he’s the GM of the Lions and not the head coach. I actually think that Marinelli is a pretty decent coach. It won’t matter because Matt Millen is the GM that has no clue on what it takes to put a roster together. To be fair, I agreed on all three of the WRs that Millen took in the first round, starting with Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Calvin Johnson. Yes Mike Williams was a bust, but Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are two very good receivers worthy of their draft status. That’s not the problem. It’s the rest of the draft and FA moves that make Millen a true executive retard. With those horrible credentials he may be qualified to run for the white house. It’s not easy being that bad. I mean he’s Isiah Thomas bad.

Lane Kiffin-
He’s only on this list because the reports are swarming that he’s about to get fired. I think Kiffin is a good coach but I think he would be better suited for the college game. He will make an excellent college coach. We’ll see if he ends up in college. The real person that should go is Al Davis. Too bad you can’t fire an owner. I think Kiffin can’t wait to be fired so he can move on. He certainly isn’t quitting and walking away from the millions that is owed to him. Al Davis is trying to play chicken so he doesn’t have to pay him and Kiffin isn’t budging.

Scott Linehan-
This one is easy. Linehan is a proven offensive coordinator but he’s been so bad at everything head coach related that it’s time for St. Lois to cut their losses, and yes I mean that literally. He has been as bit of a bad head coach as Cam Cameron was with the Dolphins. That team has taken a step back every year since he’s been there. How do you turn a Pro Bowl QB into a clip board holder? Linehan has managed to do it with Marc Bulger. Heck Marvin Lewis didn’t screw up this bad with Carson Palmer.

2-0 Doesn’t Mean Squat

In the NFL, a 2-0 start doesn’t mean anything. Excluding the Dolphins, any team can start off with victories in their first two games. There isn’t a sport out there that changes so much from week to week. Small sample: Detroit Lions started off 2-0 last year. Does anyone remember anything about that team? No, because they were pretty bad from then on. They finished the rest of the season 5-9, ending at 7-9.
On the flip side it also doesn’t mean anything for a team to start 0-2. Last year, the Super Bowl winning Giants started off 0-2. Point is, teams can go on a roll. They can go on a downward roll or an upward roll. I’m going to dissect each end of the spectrum by going over the 2-0s and the 0-2s that matter.

The 2-0s:

Dallas Cowboys- Beat Cleveland and Philadelphia.
The Cowboys are very good, as you all know. The only question this team has is on defense. The offense is too good for the defense to matter on most weeks. I would be shocked if this team lost more than 3 games this season. I expect Dallas to keep it going and end up with the best record in the NFL. The REAL DEAL.

NY Giants- Beat Washington and St. Lois.
The defending Super Bowl champs are off to a good start. Looking at their schedule, they should have no problems starting the season 6-0. Their first real test will be at Pittsburgh in week 8. From there, they’ll have to play several tough teams in consecutive weeks. Dallas, Philadelphia, and Baltimore (Baltimore is good this year. Record won’t be all that great but they have a good football team). Going 1-3 during that stretch is a real possibility. THE REAL DEAL.

Green Bay Packers- Beat Minnesota and Detroit.
Let’s hold off on the crowning of Aaron Rodgers as a great QB. I think he’s a good QB but this team has deficiencies and Rogers has yet to face a good pass defense. I still think this team is an 8-8 or 9-7 team. This team will only make the playoffs by default. They play in a bad division. I still think there is a chance the Vikings can overtake them. Dennis Green comes to mind when talking about this team. At season’s end we’ll all be saying, “THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!” FAKES.

Carolina Panthers- Beat San Diego and Chicago.
Carolina beat San Diego on the last play of the game and then beat Chicago in a similar fourth quarter comeback. Let’s give credit where credit is due, which is they hung in there and won the games w/o their best WR (Steve Smith). Reality is reality though. The Saints are the best team in this division. And Carolina has always been a streaky team. They will sputter to the finish line after their good start. Even if they make the playoffs, they will not get very far. FAKES.

Arizona Cardinals- Beat San Francisco and Miami.
Not a great resume of victories there. If there were to be a Div II in the NFL, the Dolphins would fit the bill. Beating San Francisco doesn’t give you any bragging rights either. However, this team has some real players. The offense, as long as Kurt Warner remains healthy, is dangerous and will be among the top 5 of the NFL this year. It’s just asking a lot to expect Warner to stay healthy.The defense shows flashes of being good. And this division is quite possibly the worst in the NFL. This team could be playoff bound with an unimpressive record but they will be a dangerous opponent. THE REAL DEAL.

New England Patriots- Beat Kansas City and NY Jets.
Let’s be real here. This team lost Tom Brady. They have played a really bad KC team and a mediocre NY Jets team. This week they play Div II Miami. At 3-0 they will look good. It won’t last. They will lose at least 6 games this year. Matt Cassel may be a capable player as long as things are going well. However, when he will need to put the team on his shoulders to carry them to victory they will realize just how weak they are w/o Tom Brady. The Patriots are about to see why the Vikings and the Raiders traded Moss to begin with. No QB = No point in playing hard every play. The snowball hasn’t started downhill yet but it will. FAKES.

Pittsburgh Steelers- Beat Houston and Cleveland.
W/o Brady playing in New England, suddenly the Steelers are becoming a lot of people’s AFC pick for the Super Bowl. The picks are not unwarranted. The Steelers have a legitimate chance here. They are as good as any team in the AFC right now. The next 3 weeks will give is a true test of how good this team can be with games against Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Jacksonville on the horizon. There isn’t a doubt this is a playoff team. The only question is how will they play come playoff time? THE REAL DEAL.

Tennessee Titans- Beat Jacksonville and Cincinnati.
Beating the Jags is something to brag about but beating the Bungals, not so much. The Titans never really dominate record wise but they have a great defense and a good enough offense. Vince Young is on the “Nut Case” list and unable to go. Kerry Collins doesn’t exactly say Super Bowl QB either. But, this team is built around defense and a great running game. It doesn’t really matter who the QB is as long as it’s not Joey Harrington. Chris Johnson and LenDale White are what this offense is built around. If Collins can make a few first downs with his arm, this team will climb up everyone’s radar very soon. It won’t be pretty but as long as DE Albert Haynesworth is healthy, this team will compete every week. THE REAL DEAL.

Denver Broncos- Beat Oakland and *San Diego.
Notice the asterisk by SD. A win is a win because it counts in the standings as a win. But, this team needed a miracle at home to beat the only team that matters in this division. Denver is not as good as the record says. Their offense looks good but that defense looks very shaky. I’m not a believer and think Denver will end up 2nd in the AFC West. If they get in the playoffs (queue the Jim Mora tape, “Playoffs!?....Playoffs??!!) they won’t get far. FAKES.



Now the 0-2 teams that matter……

The Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings have a pretty good team despite their 0-2 record. I think the QB change will do them some good and as long as Adrian Peterson remains on the field healthy, this team can beat the Packers for the NFC North title. I think the 0-2 start vs the 2-0 start by the Packers may be hard to overcome but this team will make a run at it. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Vikings in the playoffs in place of those Packers.

The San Diego Chargers.
I think they will bounce back and still win the AFC West ahead of the Denver Broncos despite starting off 0-2. Yes it hurts to lose Shawne Merriman. But this team can still outscore people. And they have a good enough defense to compete. I don’t like Philip Rivers personally, but he’s tough and a good NFL QB. LT is still one of the best RBs in the league, when healthy. Even if he’s not, this team has capable backups. Sproles is as good as Devin Hester on special teams and certainly can fill in for LT if needed. Point is there is too much talent on this roster for them not to bounce back and I expect them to.

I'm Back!

Well it’s been a long while since I posted. It took football season to get here to get me fired up again to write. Life’s been busy over the past few months but I’m back. I have lots to talk about so let’s get to it. I’m going to do some good old fashioned bullet points to talk about everything since it will be random stuff to get the ball rolling again. I’ve also separated the topics so everyone can post separately on the sport. Also, just a reminder, my first post of 2009 will be a review of all my predictions that I’ve made on this blog during 2008. Feel free to go back to some of my older posts to refresh your memory. Today’s posts are just to get things rolling.
First Topic: College Football
-USC, as usual, looks like they are in a class by themselves. However, they generally have a game that has you scratching your head at some point during the season. This year will be no different. One of these games USC will play down to an inferior opponent and struggle. This year I expect them to win that game though. Mark Sanchez is an impressive looking QB. He’s definitely an NFL first rounder in my book. He’s got a great arm, great poise, and very accurate. He has all of Matt Leinart’s strengths and none of his weaknesses.

-I’ve never been impressed with this Georgia team. They got too much credit for beating a smaller less talented Hawaii team last year in the Sugar Bowl. Don’t get me wrong. This team is an elite team in the SEC. I just don’t believe they are the 3rd best team in the country. They will get a chance to prove themselves with bouts against Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida. That’s a tough schedule. I’ll be a believer if they get through that. SEC is argued to be the best conference every year but I don’t think it’s an argument this year. The SEC is the best and it’s not even close. Man that was hard to say out loud.

MLB

-The Tampa Rays and the Boston Red Sox are battling it out for the American League East. Going into today (September 18th) the Rays have a 2 game lead over the BoSox. I said at the beginning of the year on this blog that I picked Boston to win the World Series against the Mets so I guess I’ll stick to that. Manny leaving town was not expected but I won’t make excuses. The BoSox still have a great team and don’t feel pressure. We’ll see what happens in the playoffs.

-And speaking of those Mets, and my pick for the National League representatives, they are in a even tighter race for the playoffs. Going into today they are locked in a big time pennant race with the Phillies and half a game back in the standings. They are also a half a game ahead of the Brewers for the wild card. It’s going to be a crazy week and a half finish to the season. I’m not sure it matters all that much because I think the road to the World Series will go through the Chicago Cubs. Again, I picked the Mets so I will stick by the pick.

-To speak about the Cubs more, they have no weaknesses (well if you include the curse they have 1). Their top 3 pitchers can matchup against anyone’s top 3. Harden, Zambrano, and Dempster are big power arms that can shut down any lineup. The bullpen? Tops in the league. Samardzija, Marmol, and Wood are the best COMBINED trio of relief pitchers in the league.

NFL

-Though not on this blog, I picked the Titans and the Cowboys to play in the Super Bowl this year. The Titans were a random pick that I just had a feeling about and the Cowboys a more obvious pick. After the first 2 weeks of the season I still feel confident with those picks.
-What is up with Vince Young? I don’t believe that he was suicidal, like some of the reports. I do believe that he did have a meltdown though. What is up with these mental cases that come from the University of Texas? Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, and now Vince Young. Let’s not forget about Roy Williams and some of the crazy things he’s said while being a member of the Detroit Lions. What the heck is Mack Brown doing to these kids? Watch out Denver Broncos. Former Texas RB Selvin Young is next to do something crazy. You heard it here first…..Geez.

-Speaking of the Broncos. That call by Ref Ed Hercules was just awful. At least he admitted that it was awful. That allowed the Broncos to get a win they didn’t deserve against the Chargers. Making matters worse, it made Mike Shanahan look good by going for two to win the game. You know, no one in the NFL has better job security than Mike Shanahan (Bill Bellicheat but that’s it). Any other coach wouldn’t be able to make the call to try this. Fail and you are certain to lose your job at season’s end, if not before. Shanahan has the luxury of going with his gut because if he’s wrong he still has a job no matter what. Other coaches have to play it safe.

Blog Closed for a while

For my two fans who read my blog, I will be shutting down writing for a while. Life is just a bit too hectic right now for me to be able to write so I don't want to waste your time. Maybe by football season things will be a bit more normal. I will let everyone know when I start writing again. Thanks.

Random Thoughts on NBA Playoffs So Far

Cavs - Wizards
-Game one of the Cavaliers and Wizards didn't disappoint. The teams went back and forth and in the end the Cavs pulled out a squeeker to go up 1-0. Expect every game to be this intense. It felt like a fight could break out at any moment (and it nearly did). These teams really hate each other. And it's fun to watch.
-After all the crap DeShawn Stevenson talked, he couldn't back it up. It was the same DeShawn Stevenson who publicly said that LeBron James was overrated. All DeShawn did when it was time to put his game where his mouth is was to go 1-9 with 3 points. Hey DeShawn, in the famous lyrics of Fred Durst, "your mouth is writing checks that your ass can't cash!" Let me suggest that the league give DeShawn a drug test and the team to put some duct tape over his mouth.

Suns - Spurs
-Wow, what a game! Too much happened in this game for me to talk about everything.
-Is it me or does Phoenix actually look like the best team in this series. I mean, could the Spurs play a better game than that? I think not. It took 2 OTs, Amare Stoudemire fouling out, a Tim Duncan 3 pointer (his first of the season), and Tim Duncan to score 40 points to win. If the Suns can shake off the tough loss, I'm confident they can win this series.
-Amare Stoudemire's body control is amazing to watch.
-To all NBA Refs, stop calling fouls on Tim Duncan. Don't you know that Tim Duncan has never committed a foul in his career? It is rare to see Duncan get called for a foul without him crying over it. Seriously, every foul he cries over! It makes me sick.
-To all NBA Refs, call a foul every time Tim Duncan misses a contested shot. It is also a rare moment to see Duncan not cry when someone plays good defense on him and he misses.

I'm not going to write about every game but the first two games were great and I couldn't help it. Let's hope the rest of the playoffs are as good as these games were.

Smoked Aces

We’re going on three weeks into the baseball season and there have been some serious issues with some elite aces. Below are my thoughts on a few of these big name pitchers and why I think they are struggling.

CC Sabathia- The defending AL Cy Young winner has been struggling mightily. His numbers through 4-18-2008 are 18 IP, 13.50 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, while striking out 14. The strikeout rate isn’t bad but that WHIP is awful. The Indians say he’s not injured and I believe them. CC still has had the great velocity on his fastballs (94-96MPH). He has just not been able to locate his pitches. When he’s throwing strikes, they are “fat” strikes (and no I am not making a CC fat joke). CC is missing inside the strike zone. He is not locating very well and all his pitches are very hittable. I think CC will find his groove and break out of this slump. CC will find his rhythm soon enough as the weather gets warmer, and by the end of the year, his ERA will be back in the 3.5 range.

Justin Verlander- The pitcher who I thought would win the AL CY Young is also struggling. His season to date numbers are 24.1 IP, 7.03 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, while striking out 14. Mr. Verlander has been struggling just as bad as Sabathia even if his overall numbers look better. Word is that his velocity is actually down. He’s throwing around 93-94 MPH, which would be a great thing if you used to seeing him throw 99-101 MPH. Verlander may just have a bit of a tired arm from last year. It’s a cause for concern when a pitcher is not throwing as hard as he used to. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Verlander spend a short stint on the DL soon. He may just not be 100 %. Ultimately, Verlander will be OK and I expect he’ll be in the running for a CY Young Award before it’s all said and done.

Roy Oswalt- This year, even after a good start his last outing, Roy’s numbers are 23 IP, 6.65 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, while striking out 16. Roy has been on my worry radar for two seasons. Last year he showed some signs of decline with a high WHIP and lowering strike out rate. I’ve learned to watch for things like that since Jason Schmidt had the same issues a few years back. Now Schmidt is hardly ever healthy and is nowhere near the pitcher he once was even when healthy. Back to Oswalt, while you still may see a solid start from him here and there, it’s time to realize the decline. He still has a great name but he’ll no longer be the Roy Oswalt that we have come to expect.

2008 NBA Playoffs-

Well the time has come to break down the NBA playoffs. So without delay let’s get to the matchups:

Western Conference:
1. LA Lakers VS 8. Denver Nuggets- On paper this seems like a great series to watch. There will be lots of exciting offense to watch but the Denver Nuggets really don’t have what it takes to put any fear into the Lakers. I expect many shootouts in this series with the Nuggets missing the finish line of most of the games. Kobe (AKA The Assassin) Bryant is going to make sure the Nuggets fall in this one.
Prediction- LA Lakers in 4 (that’s right…a sweep)

2. N.O. Hornets VS 7. Dallas Mavericks - Count me in as one of the few people who never believed in the Hornets. I won’t discount their record or success. I just don’t believe they are championship ready yet. Chris Paul is a true superstar but the Mavericks are hitting their stride. Dirk is playing like the MVP since he’s returned from the ankle/knee injury. I see some fire in his eyes and his teammates have followed his lead. This will be a back and forth series but I think Dallas is not the right matchup for the young Hornets. The Hornets would have been much better off against the Nuggets.
Prediction- Dallas Mavericks in 7

3. San Antonio Spurs VS 6. Phoenix Suns- The Suns traded for the Diesel just because of the Spurs. Now they get to test and see if the move will pay off. The Suns and Spurs REALLY don’t like each other. This series is going to be electric and I can’t wait to see it. I know it’s not smart to bet against the Spurs but I don’t think that Shaq will put up with any underhanded nonsense from Bruce Bowen or the rest of that dirty playing Spurs team. Consider Shaq the highest paid bodyguard in the world in this series.
Prediction- Phoenix Suns in 6

4. Utah Jazz VS 5. Houston Rockets- This is the non relevant game of the Western Conference. Houston doesn’t have enough to beat the Jazz. Not having Yao is going to hurt now more so than it did in the regular season. We all know that T-Mac doesn’t know how to will a team to win.
Prediction- Utah Jazz in 5

Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Celtics VS Atlanta Hawks- This one is just so lopsided I won’t even comment on.
Prediction- Boston Celtics in 4

2. Detroit Pistons VS Philadelphia 76ers- The Pistons have been a huge thorn in the 76ers side for many years. This year won’t be any different. The Sixers just aren’t there yet with this young team to beat a playoff tested Pistons team.
Prediction- Pistons in 4

3. Orlando Magic VS 6. Toronto Raptors- If I cared about who wins this series at all it may be enjoyable but I don’t. Both of these teams are solid and will give each other fits. It will be a good series as far as the back and forth goes but I have to say that since neither of these teams stands a chance to make it to the finals so it doesn’t matter to me.
Prediction- Orlando Magic in 7

4. Cleveland Cavaliers VS Washington Wizards- This will be a good series to watch. There is some bad blood and some history with these teams. It will be a good series to watch. On paper, now that Arenas is back, the Wizards are the better team. The Cavs starting 5 frustrate me because I don’t think they play the correct combination of players around LeBron James. Because of that, I don’t have confidence in the Cavs. I hope LeBron puts on a show and wills his team to victory but I have my doubts if he’s there yet in his career.
Prediction- Washington Wizards in 6

In the Conference Semi Finals:
Western Conference- Lakers will beat Utah in 6 and the Suns will beat Dallas in 7.
Eastern Conference- Detroit will pummel Orlando in 5 and Boston will advance past the Wizards in 5.

In the Conference Finals:
Western Conference - Lakers will beat the Suns in 7
Eastern Conference- Boston will beat the Pistons in 6

In the Finals: (I’ll break this down more when it actually gets here)
Boston will beat the Lakers in 6

A Few Different Things

While I’m not a believer in the Detroit Tigers, I also am not worried about their slow start to the season. The Tigers, through the first 7 games of the season, have started off 0-7. The thing is the Tigers are missing their spark plug. Curtis Granderson is the man who makes this team go. You don’t score 120 runs for a team and not be missed when you’re out of the lineup. Granderson is due back in a few weeks and the Tigers will get back on track. However, they have to start winning games or they will be in too big of a hole to climb out. Either way, this team’s bullpen is too much of a liability for them to be a serious contender. They have OK starting pitching. Of course, as a Cleveland Indians fan, they can continue to lose and I’ll just fine with that.

The NFL draft is just a few weeks away. There is still no sign of who the Dolphins are going to select at number 1. As of today, most experts seem to agree that it will be one of the Longs and not Matt Ryan. Who knows what the Parcells camp is thinking but I do know w/o a doubt they know who they are taking. That decision has been made already. If I was a betting man (and I am), it’s going to be Chris Long. He’s a safe investment, if there was such a thing. Chris Long would also bring back an immediate return on the investment. He’s ready to play right away. Of course, the Fins would have to decide how to fit him and Jason Taylor on the same defense because they essentially play the same position. We’ll see what happens come draft day.

Well, I’m off to a bad start with my championship predictions this year. After the Tigers collapsed in the final two minutes of the NCAA championship game, I’m now 0-2. The Patriots lost and now the Tigers. Can I make it 0-3 with the NBA? I’ll make an official prediction on the future NBA champs soon. I want to see the seeding first. I’m still leaning on the Lakers VS the Celtics as of today but I need to get a better feel for the Lakers before I commit.

The NCAA Final Four

While the two Final Four games on Saturday night seem like boring blowouts, it was anything but boring. The score may indicate there were two games easily won by Memphis and Kansas, but the games were highly entertaining. Kansas, in the first half, came out ready to play and played at a level like North Carolina has never seen this year. They were absolutely punched in the mouth by Kansas, and for the first time this year, looked like they didn't have confidence. Fact is, they didn't start the game with the same intensity that Kansas came with. Before UNC knew what hit them, they were down by 28 points! I was in disbelief at what I was seeing. UNC finally woke up and started punching back. Midway through the second half, UNC had Kansas doubting themselves and had the momentum. They climbed to within 4 points. You may see a team down by 28 points climb back into it in the NBA, but in college, it is unheard of. Kansas showed some serious character by withstanding the UNC run and finishing the game strong. I honestly thought they were going to fold under the pressure and the momentum that UNC had.

Memphis has played as well as any team I've ever watched at the NCAA tournament. They have played with confidence and consistency. At no point during any of their games did it feel like they were in jeopardy of losing. They just look like they are the better team when matching up against the opponent. Their talent is just overwhelming. They cause mismatches at just about every position. Coach Cal has these kids playing with the confidence it takes to win a championship. They believe they are better than everyone else, and the most remarkable thing is they are making their opponents believe that too. I see the look of fear and intimidation in every team they've played so far. Even fellow number 1 seed UCLA had the look of being over matched during the Final Four game. They knew they didn't have a shot at winning. They were playing like underdogs and played with a bit of desperation in their eyes.

Now it's Memphis and Kansas in the Championship game. Kansas likes to run and play a frantic pace. The problem for Kansas is so does Memphis. This game is going to be fun to watch. The pace will make you tired from watching on the couch. I don't think that Kansas has the talent to beat Memphis, and I think given the pace of the game, Memphis will be cutting down the nets in the end. I think that Kansas played a little over their heads in the UNC game. I don't think they have another one of those games in them. When it's all said and done, Memphis is this year's NCAA champion.

I want to make one small point about Tyler Hansbrough. Even though his numbers say he had a decent game with 17 ponits and 9 rebounds, he truly was over matched. He was playing a team with some inside presence and couldn't perform at his usual self. I think it's a sign of what you can expect of him in the NBA. If you dominate in college, it doesn't mean you can dominate in the NBA. Hansbrough is going to be an average player at best in the NBA. His motor is the one thing he has going for him. He hustles and is tenacious but he isn't going to be able to score like he did in college among the giant super athletes that the NBA has. He does have a future in the league but don't expect the 20 points and 10 rebounds to be what you see from him.

The other player I'd like to talk about is the man they call CDR. Chris Douglas-Roberts is a remarkable player. His style of basketball is very unique. In college basketball, he can take over a game and he's quite refreshing to watch. Some of the moves he makes attacking the rim I haven't seen since the Magic Johnson days. Those 1980's moves combined with the moves of the modern day player is what makes CDR the effective player has been. I can say w/o hesitation that there is no other player in college with that unique package. Unfortunately for CDR, he plays a position that is a dime or dozen in the NBA. He's a wing player. For those who don't understand the basketball lingo, a wing player is a guy who is basically a G or F who can drive to the basket and be able to score from the outside. It is generally a position that guys are anywhere from 6'5" to 6'9". The NBA is filled with those kind of players. Every year there tons of wing players entering the NBA draft and end up being busts or not even getting drafted. These guys have to match up against players like Josh Smith, Shawn Marion, Josh Howard, Tracy McGrady, and even LeBron James. Those are just a few examples. If you know the NBA and those players I've mentioned, you can see why wing players often struggle to take their college success to the NBA. I think CDR will stick around in the NBA and will be a decent player, but he isn't going to have anywhere near the career he's had in college at the next level. This is one evaluation I make that I hope I'm wrong about because I love CDR. But, looking at this from a unbiased point of view, that is my assessment.

A Quick This and That…

The NY Jets have spent a ton of money this offseason on free agents. As most Dolphins fans are, I am Jets hater. Nothing makes me happier than seeing the Jets overspend on high priced free agents. Too bad the Patriots aren’t this dumb. The Jets have improved their team but the price they have paid is just too high for what they got in return. They may have improved from a 4-12 team to maybe an 8-8 team, at best. I hope that was worth $130 + million. The ONLY way the Jets do better than that is if they end up with McFadden after the draft, in late April. Their offense is stale and he would help them in that department.

The NBA playoffs are almost here. The Western Conference is the best it has ever been. If you don’t win at least 50 games you will probably miss the playoffs. That’s just insane. The team to beat seems to be the Boston Celtics, out of the Eastern Conference. You’ll definitely have to play some great basketball to beat them. I still say that the Cavaliers are under the radar and will make some noise in the playoffs. They may not be good enough to beat Boston but they can beat everyone else. Everyone’s “new” band wagon team is now the N.O. Hornets. I guess the Lakers are old news since the Gasol injury and the Rockets are no longer hot enough to put into the discussion. The media is now in love with Chris Paul’s Hornets. I still say it’ll be the Lakers when all the smoke clears, out of the West. Boston vs. LA will be a great Finals, and maybe the NBA, will get their ratings back this year. Now if someone passes that memo to Detroit and San Antonio.

Baseball is here! And with that, here is your World Series prediction:
Boston Red Sox VS NY Mets, winner Red Sox.
I know I’m not going out on much of a limb here but that doesn’t mean that it won’t happen. The BoSox are just too good and the NL is too thin to think that J. Santana won’t push the Mets into the World Series.

One more quick thing on the draft, so I'm on record. Michigan QB Chad Henne, is the second best QB in this draft. For a guy who'll go in the 2nd or 3rd round, he's the 2008 draft's best bargain.

NFL Draft

In this piece, I’m going predict the who’s who of the 2008 NFL draft class. Go ahead and book these guys as future All Pros. But, I’ll only evaluate how I did on these predictions based on their upcoming rookie year. I’m not doing every single position but the players I see making a difference in year 1. Plus, I won’t talk about guys I’ve written about already.

Best WR: Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma
Standing at 6’4” 217 lbs, Kelly is a big physical target. Now throw in that he runs a 4.5 forty yard dash, and you have someone who’s almost impossible to cover. He has terrific hands. He doesn’t drop passes. When I see him play he reminds me of a Plaxico Burress mixed in with a little bit of Randy Moss. Will he reach that potential? That remains to be seen, but this guy is the best WR in the draft. Depending on who drafts him and what QB he has throwing him the ball will determine if he reaches that potential. In fact, if it weren’t for Rashard Mendenhall, I’d be all over Kelly being offensive rookie of the year. Again, that would depend on who drafts him though.

Best LB: Keith Rivers, USC
Go ahead and book the defensive rookie of the year to Rivers. I am very impressed with his tenacious tackling and his motor. He wore number 55 in college. And he plays very similar to the old USC number 55 (Junior Seau). No one has the intensity of Seau of course, but I think Rivers is going to be one of the leading tacklers in the league for many years.

NFL Free Agency
There have been lots of moves in NFL free agency this past week. The move I want to talk about is the recent signing of Michael Turner by the Atlanta Falcons. Turner will no doubt be a huge addition to the Falcons. This move will definitely help the Falcons move on from the whole Mike Vick fiasco. In the fantasy world Turner will be the new hot commodity.
Every since Turner played for Northern Illinois, I was a believer in his abilities. I was very disappointed when San Diego drafted him because I thought he’d never see any touched because of LT. That wasn’t entirely the case but we saw enough of Turner’s ability to know he had some serious talent and that he was a starting caliber RB in this league. There is one thing and only one thing that makes me cautious about Turner. I worry about his durability. Even as a backup to LT, he was often injured. Now he’ll be the main guy thanks to the Falcons finally realizing that Warrick Dunn was not an every down back anymore. It’s 2 years too late but better late than never I guess. I guess now we’ll see what Turner is really made up of but I’m also curious to where he gets drafted in fantasy drafts. Off the top of my head, I’d select Turner in the late first round or early second round. Hey, at least this gives me another reason to watch preseason football.

Just Sayin...

Football

The NFL Scouting Combine is over. Thank goodness! As big as a football fan as I am, I couldn’t stomach watching it. I couldn’t make myself watch but for just a few minutes here and there. What did we learn? Um, Darren McFadden is fast. Really? That’s a shocker. All those games he played in didn’t show that? Um, Jake Long has really long arms and big hands. Apparently this is a great thing for an offensive tackle. Again, the fact that he dominated on the field for the past few seasons didn’t matter? Then you see a guy who has played nearly 4 seasons as a starter at FSU, WR D’Cody Fagg, blew out his knee in a drill. Now his career is likely over and his dreams of playing in the NFL are washed down the tubes because of some stupid, meaningless drill. I don’t blame any of these kids for skipping the drills in the future.
The only thing that would be worth televising (and actually very interesting) would be if we got to watch those interviews. We know what these kids can do, for the most part, because we’ve seen them play in games. Why do we need to see a bunch of drills and seeing guys run through cones? Heck, even when I actually played football, I hated that part of the practice. Agility drills and 40 yard dashes were dreadful. I won’t be watching the Combine in the future.


Baseball

ESPN’s Buster Olney said on Mike & Mike in the Morning that he is picking the Cleveland Indians to play the Chicago Cubs in the World Series. He predicts that the Indians would beat the Cubs and become world champs. If he’s right, I’ll be in heaven given that I’m an Indians fan. I have to say, I can see the Cubs making it. The NL is for the taking and they have the pieces and the manager to do it. The only team standing in their way is the New York Mets, realistically. Even then, the Mets haven’t proven in the past that they can do anything. In the AL, however, the Indians have to take out the new and much improved Detroit Tigers, the defending champs Boston Red Sox, and not to mention the evil empire known as the New York Yankees. Personally, I feel the Red Sox just have too much for any other team to handle. They have a great pitching staff from top to bottom. Their lineup is incredible. They also don’t feel any pressure. In short, they have no weaknesses. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Red Sox will repeat. I also hope that I just jinxed them.


Basketball

The Memphis Tigers finally lost a game. Tennessee beat the Tigers in a great game that could have gone either way. I’m sure everyone saw the game so I won’t go into details. History said that the Tigers were going to lose. I think the number 1 team has played at home to the number 2 team 5 times (counting this game) and each time the number 2 team has beaten the number 1 team. The Tigers can go about their business now and just play for what it’s all about anyway, which is winning the NCAA title. Being number 1 just puts a big bull’s eye on you and then being undefeated just doubles that pressure. Ask Tennessee how it feels to be number 1. Three days after beating Memphis and becoming the new number 1 team in the country, Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt. There’s a big pressure difference when it comes to being the hunter and being the hunted.

I'm Back

Since I've been on hiatus the last few weeks, I'm going to touch on a few different things...

NBA Trades

I won't go into details about all the trades but to touch on a few, the Lakers just plain ripped off the Grizzlies. I never will understand what the Grizzlies were thinking giving up Pau Gasol for a bag of peanuts. They got crap back in players and the two first round picks they get back won't help because the Lakers are too good for those picks to be high enough to matter. The NBA draft rarely produces any quality players that go late in round 1. The Grizzlies could have gotten more and have basically made the Lakers unbeatable coming out of the Western Conference. This trade compares to the trade the Atlanta Hawks did several years ago when they traded Rasheed Wallace to Detroit for basically a bag of roastet peanuts. Everyone scratched their heads on that one and the Detroit Pistons won a championship that year because of it. Get ready folks because history is about to repeat itself. The Lakers, once they get Andrew Bynam back from injury, will be unstoppable.

The second trade I want to discuss is the one that just happened. The Cleveland Cavaliers just completed the second best trade of the year. To me this trade brings them up to the Boston Celtics level. I won't go into details about every player in the deal but they essentially gave up Larry Hughes for Ben Wallace and Wally Szerbiak. Ben Wallace is a nice player to have, even if he is on the downside of his career, but the player that is going to be huge is Szerbiak. People are underestimating how huge this addition is. Szerbiak is the outside shooter that the Cavs have been lacking. He's one of the best shooters in the NBA. He will complement LeBron James very well because, unlike Larry Hughes, Szerbiak can score without dominating the ball. LeBron will now have a little more space to work with, and if teams doubleteam him, he now has two sharp shooters that can kill defenses. Point Guard, Daniel Gibson, along with Szerbiak will space the floor and give LeBron James more lane to work with. Ben Wallace is the player that does the dirty work. He doesn't need the ball to be happy. The Cavs starting lineup will be LeBron James, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szerbiak, Ben Wallace, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Experts all think that this Cavs team lacks a true point guard and that's what LeBron needs. I disagree. The Cavs are much better this way because LeBron is all the playmaker this team needs. He doesn't need someone else to dominate the ball and run offense. With his abilities, he needs role players around him while he creates the offense. A true point guard would take away his touches. That's why I never was on board the Jason Kidd to Cleveland deal. Also, once Anderson Varejao gets healthy, they will have another energy guy in addition to Ben Wallace. This team kind of reminds of the Philadelphia 76ers team that went to the NBA Finals back in 2001. The Cavs now have great role players surrounding a superstar player just like the Sixers had back then. I know this year, for the first time in a while, I will be watching the NBA playoffs with great interest and not just because there's nothing else to watch.

Steroids in Baseball

I really hate this topic because, like most people, I'm sick of hearing about it. I'll just write a little on it because it is news, after all. Truth is, most fans don't care one way or the other but you can't help to read or talk about it. My view on this whole subject is if you aren't going suspend players who have "cheated" in the past, there's no sense in talking about this crap anymore. We as fans know there were a lot of players who did this stuff. HGH, Steroids, Insilin, B-12 shots, pain pills, Ephedrine....you get the idea. WE DON'T CARE. Congress, please just let it go if you aren't going punish people who've used the stuff. Stop wasting people's time and our tax dollars for a sideshow.

Fantasy Baseball

The fantasy baseball draft is just around the corner for most people playing in leagues. Here are a few tips to think about when drafting your team. Some of these tips are my secrets to success and I've lived by these general tips. Trust me, they are valuable.

• Pitching is what wins your league.
  Even though pitching is important, it is not wise to draft a pitcher in the first few rounds unless an ace type pitcher slips to you. Don't reach for a tier 2 type pitcher in round 2 or 3 because the top 3 guys are gone and people are drafting pitchers.
  
• Always think about value when drafting. When there is a run on certain positions, don't follow. Some of the best valued players come during runs.
  
• Don't waste your bench on position players. Draft a couple of guys like someone who has slipped and should have been drafted sooner or even a sleeper, but don't just draft a guy just to sit on your bench for nothing. Your bench should be saved for pitching mostly.
  
• When drafting pitchers, try to target guys that have high strikeout potential with a low WHIP. This formula is why year after year I've put together some great pitching staffs. If a guy has a great WHIP and a good K rate, most of the time it means he's going to get you lots of quality starts.
  
• Don't reach on closers. This is the most simple thing to follow. Closers are plentiful. Getting an elite closer will cost you because you have to draft them early. I always use the quanity method over quality. Follow the same WHIP and K-rate rules when getting a closer. You don't want a closer who doesn't strike people out and just gets saves. They may get you saves but it will cost you in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. That's why when I draft closers I don't even look at the Saves category.

I could go on and on but this is good enough info to get you started. These are just general rules to follow. Drafts are unpredictable so each one is different. Have a plan but be open to changes in it when your draft goes in a way you weren't expecting. Good luck!

NFL Draft and the Number 1 Pick

With one big game left to play, Super Bowl XLII, the NFL draft is lurking less than 3 months away. It's already being discussed by "draft experts" and the media. And if they can do it, then I guess it's time for me to give you my take on it. These "experts" will flip flop their boards every week, which I never seem to understand why, leading up to draft day. They've seen these guys play in college. They have 3 or 4 years of work and video on them to watch. After all that, they even get to to see most of them in the Senior Bowl up close. Why the flip flop? (And there's my rant of the day).

The Dolphins have the first pick in the upcoming draft. If I could trade the pick I would because of the ungodly amount guaranteed money you have to spend (not to mention dealing with a lengthy holdout you most certainly have to deal with). The Dolphins know this and, of course, try and trade the pick. They know to sign the first pick, you'd have to give the player at least a $60 million deal with about $38 million of it in a guaranteed money. That's w/o ever seeing them in uniform. That's a serious commitment. If you're wrong about the selection, it could set your franchise back 3 to 4 years. Committing that much money (and salary cap space) to a player you've never seen play in your system is just plain crazy, but that is the NFL way. I've complained about it for too many years and it doesn't do any good so I'll leave it there.

Having talked about the crazy money and commitment it takes to sign a top pick, let's look more at trading the pick. Well, every team knows what it's going to take to sign that pick. There is one, and only one, reason that would make a team trade for that pick. They'd have to be in love with a certain player. This year, there is no true prospect who every scout believe to be that clear cut guy. Most "experts" believe the best player in the draft is Darren McFadden. I've written my opinion on McFadden in my very first blog topic so I won't elaborate any more on that subject. The most common guy, the "experts" seem to agree upon going to the Dolphins, is LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.

While I don't doubt Dorsey to be a great NFL pro, I'll argue that no defensive tackle is worth the number 1 pick and that kind of money. You're going to give $60 million to "space taker"? He's not the kind of player who sacks the QB very often. To me, you're basically drafting New England defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. Wilfork is a great football player. Granted, Wilfork will kill your offensive scheme if you don't account for him and he'll draw double teams and wreak havoc on your running game, but very rarely will he sack the QB. That's not his "purpose". Wilfork's purpose, like Dorsey's, is to clog up the middle and be disruptive. He's the kind of guy who the great LBs of the league want on their team. He'll eat up blockers, freeing up the great LBs in this league to make the tackles. Now having said all that, do you know what selection Wilfork was for the Patriots? He was selected in the first round with the 21st overall pick in 2004.

The difference between Dorsey and Wilfork is media hype. That's it. When Wilfork played for the Canes he was on a team of stars. Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow II, Jonathan Vilma, D.J. Williams, and Vernon Carey were all teammates selected before Wilfork in the first round of that 2004 draft. LSU doesn't have those kind of players to take the spotlight off of Dorsey. So Dorsey is benefiting from that standpoint.

I think Dorsey will be a fine pro and a definite early first round pick. I'm not saying he's not valuable. My argument is that he is not a franchise type player. Heck, arguably the greatest defensive tackle to ever play the game (like him or not) is Warren Sapp. Even he wasn't selected until the 12th pick of the first round. Do I need a better argument? I'll even argue that USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is every bit as good as Dorsey. I've seen Ellis play in 2 games this year and he's made more of an impression on me than Dorsey.

I've talked about what I wouldn't do if I had the number one pick. Now let me tell you what I would do. In my opinion there are 3 things to have in order to be a successful organization consistently. 1st, you need a QB. The Dolphins do not have one. John Beck is probably not the answer. He's adequate at best. Adequate doesn't win you championships, unless you're really good at the other two winning components. 2nd, you need an offensive line to protect your precious QB, and there's not a more important cornerstone for an O-line than the left tackle. 3rd, you need a great pass rusher or two. There's not a better defense than one who can rush the passer. You think the New York Giants are in the Super Bowl because of Eli Manning, like the flip flopping media is talking about? No, Eli just didn't mess it up. It was the NFL's leading sack unit that got them there. Eli suddenly didn't become Peyton Manning. A great pass rush will even eliminate your weaknesses in your defensive secondary. The Giants don't have any "shutdown" corners. What they have is an awesome pass rush coming from the defensive line.

Having giving you my opinion for building a great football team, let's get back to the draft. You know Dorsey is out. You know McFadden is out. Who's left you say? Here are the 3 guys I'm choosing between and in order, Boston College QB Matt Ryan, Michigan OT Jake Long, and Virginia DE (son of former NFL great pass rusher Howie Long) Chris Long. Those are my top 3 picks in the draft.

This past year, Ryan's senior year, he threw for 4,507 yards, 31 TDs, and 19 Int. Those may not be eye popping numbers but keep in mind that Boston College has almost no NFL prospects on their offense. Even big college football fans can't name one other player that plays offense on BC. I know I can't without looking it up. Another plus is he didn't play in an offensive system that is known to put up big stats. Did you know that Tom Brady threw for 2,217 yards, 16 TDs and 6 Ints in his senior season at Michigan? Not to say that Ryan will be Tom Brady. All I'm trying to say is that Brady didn't play on a team known to have their QBs put up big numbers. The spread offenses that almost every college team runs now days makes it harder to identify a true QB. But, I can tell you that BC is not known for running a spread offense. Another point I want to make about Ryan is had he played for USC, for example, everyone would be foaming at the mouth that he's the next great QB and no way would he not be drafted at the number 1 slot. It's the truth.

Going along with my formula for success, Jake Long would be the next best choice. He's the kind of left tackle that will be playing 10-12 years and will protect your QB for a long time. The argument for taking Jake at number 1 over Ryan is that it's harder to miss with good offensive tackles. Let's do a little draft review of the first offensive tackles taken off the draft board other than me just telling you. 2007: Cleveland Browns took Joe Thomas with the 3rd pick (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). 2006: The NY Jets took D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the 4th pick, still the starter. In 2005 New Orleans Saints took Jammal Brown with the 13th pick (selected to 2006 Pro Bowl). In 2004 the Oakland Raiders took Robert Gallery with the second pick, starter but is considered a failed pick and has since been moved to offensive guard. In 2003, Carolina Panthers selected JORDAN GROSS with the 8th pick, still a starter. In 2002, the Buffalo Bills selected Mike D. Williams, who is no longer on the team and is considered a bust. In 2001 the Arizona Cardinals selected Leonard Davis, who signed with the Cowboys in 2007 (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). You see. Only one bust out of the last 6 drafts. That's good odds. So The Dolphins can play it safe and take Jake Long and it wouldn't be a bad choice. Chances are he'll be the staple of the line for years to come.

The 3rd player, according to my formula, is Chris Long. He played for a Virginia defensive scheme that is not designed to get great sack numbers from individuals but yet he still finished his senior season with 14 sacks. Chris Long is a can't miss prospect. He's got the bloodlines and the numbers. He's been in the NFL world his whole life because of his dad. Howie Long, I have no doubt, has taught him how to be a professional. He's been taught right and he's a gifted pass rusher. If by chance the Dolphins select Chris Long, he will make current Dolphin's DE Jason Taylor's job that much easier and the Dolphins defense better instantly.

It all boils down to this for Dolphin GM Jeff Ireland and VP Bill Parcells. If you want the safe picks, it will be either Jake Long or Chris Long. If you want a "probable" franchise QB, you'd have to take Matt Ryan. Either way those picks are winners in my book and worth the kind of money you'd have to pay them. If they believe in John Beck, then it's time to choose between the Longs. If not, you have to take Matt Ryan. There you have it. It's that easy. Now if I only had Bill's phone number.



Super Bowl XLII prediction: Patriots beat the Giants 28-24 in the highest TV rated Super Bowl in history.