Sunday, January 13, 2008

NFL Draft Gem

With the NFL draft just around the corner, it’s time to start evaluating some future stars of the league. I feel I’m better at evaluating offensive talent than defensive talent so most of my football topics will be about offensive players. Every once in a while I’ll give an opinion of the defensive side of the ball.

Most people who follow football know who the best RB coming out of college is this year. Darren McFadden will be the first RB drafted. There’s no argument there, but if I was running an NFL team, I wouldn’t want to pay a RB the money it would take to sign a top 5 pick at that position. The RB position is the easiest to fill in football. Unless you have a true superstar like Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson there is no reason to fork over that amount of money on your RB. You should save the $50/$60 million contracts for franchise QBs or for dominant defensive players.

While I believe that McFadden is a going to be a good RB I don’t believe he is the same can’t miss RB that Adrian Peterson was/is. To me, the best value at RB is Rashard Mendenhall, the junior at Illinois. He’s a smaller back than McFadden at 5’11” but he stands at 210 lbs. To me that’s a prototypical RB. I’d rather have a RB at 5’11” than 6’2” or 6’3”. The taller backs are bigger targets and are more susceptible to bigger hits. McFadden stands in at 6’2” 210 lbs. Mendenhall runs a 4.45-4.48 (highest-lowest times) 40 yard dash compared to McFadden’s 4.42-4.45. Their speeds are similar. Neither player is in danger of getting caught from behind.

I’m going out on a limb and saying that Mendenhall will have as good of if not better career as McFadden. Obviously, it will depend on what team drafts him and how they utilize him. You could be the best RB in the world but if your coach is too stupid or has too much loyalty to the veteran he would be replacing you can’t control that. Vikings coach, case in point, didn’t give the starting nod to Adrian Peterson this year until after week 6. Everyone on the planet knew that the Peterson should be the starting ball carrier but he stubbornly kept veteran Chester Taylor as the starter. But Peterson’s talent finally forced his hand and he ended up giving in. The Vinkings, coincidently, became a playoff contender with Peterson running the rock as a starter. Imagine if Peterson was the day one starter. The Vikings would have made the playoffs and who knows what they could have done. Coaches can derail a career just by not utilizing their players’ talent correctly. Shaun Payton, the N.O. Saints coach is another fine example of not using his players (Reggie Bush) correctly but that’s another blog topic by itself.

My point is whatever team ends up with Rashard Mendenhall, they will have the steal of the draft. His contract will be a bargain and if given the opportunity to shine you’re looking at the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I would agree with your assessment of Mendenhall and McFadden. . .and I'll go one further. I think Felix Jones will have a better pro career than McFadden. He's just as fast, if not faster, and much shiftier. McFadden's collision-style running will get him decapitated in the NFL.

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