NFL Draft and the Number 1 Pick

With one big game left to play, Super Bowl XLII, the NFL draft is lurking less than 3 months away. It's already being discussed by "draft experts" and the media. And if they can do it, then I guess it's time for me to give you my take on it. These "experts" will flip flop their boards every week, which I never seem to understand why, leading up to draft day. They've seen these guys play in college. They have 3 or 4 years of work and video on them to watch. After all that, they even get to to see most of them in the Senior Bowl up close. Why the flip flop? (And there's my rant of the day).

The Dolphins have the first pick in the upcoming draft. If I could trade the pick I would because of the ungodly amount guaranteed money you have to spend (not to mention dealing with a lengthy holdout you most certainly have to deal with). The Dolphins know this and, of course, try and trade the pick. They know to sign the first pick, you'd have to give the player at least a $60 million deal with about $38 million of it in a guaranteed money. That's w/o ever seeing them in uniform. That's a serious commitment. If you're wrong about the selection, it could set your franchise back 3 to 4 years. Committing that much money (and salary cap space) to a player you've never seen play in your system is just plain crazy, but that is the NFL way. I've complained about it for too many years and it doesn't do any good so I'll leave it there.

Having talked about the crazy money and commitment it takes to sign a top pick, let's look more at trading the pick. Well, every team knows what it's going to take to sign that pick. There is one, and only one, reason that would make a team trade for that pick. They'd have to be in love with a certain player. This year, there is no true prospect who every scout believe to be that clear cut guy. Most "experts" believe the best player in the draft is Darren McFadden. I've written my opinion on McFadden in my very first blog topic so I won't elaborate any more on that subject. The most common guy, the "experts" seem to agree upon going to the Dolphins, is LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.

While I don't doubt Dorsey to be a great NFL pro, I'll argue that no defensive tackle is worth the number 1 pick and that kind of money. You're going to give $60 million to "space taker"? He's not the kind of player who sacks the QB very often. To me, you're basically drafting New England defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. Wilfork is a great football player. Granted, Wilfork will kill your offensive scheme if you don't account for him and he'll draw double teams and wreak havoc on your running game, but very rarely will he sack the QB. That's not his "purpose". Wilfork's purpose, like Dorsey's, is to clog up the middle and be disruptive. He's the kind of guy who the great LBs of the league want on their team. He'll eat up blockers, freeing up the great LBs in this league to make the tackles. Now having said all that, do you know what selection Wilfork was for the Patriots? He was selected in the first round with the 21st overall pick in 2004.

The difference between Dorsey and Wilfork is media hype. That's it. When Wilfork played for the Canes he was on a team of stars. Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow II, Jonathan Vilma, D.J. Williams, and Vernon Carey were all teammates selected before Wilfork in the first round of that 2004 draft. LSU doesn't have those kind of players to take the spotlight off of Dorsey. So Dorsey is benefiting from that standpoint.

I think Dorsey will be a fine pro and a definite early first round pick. I'm not saying he's not valuable. My argument is that he is not a franchise type player. Heck, arguably the greatest defensive tackle to ever play the game (like him or not) is Warren Sapp. Even he wasn't selected until the 12th pick of the first round. Do I need a better argument? I'll even argue that USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is every bit as good as Dorsey. I've seen Ellis play in 2 games this year and he's made more of an impression on me than Dorsey.

I've talked about what I wouldn't do if I had the number one pick. Now let me tell you what I would do. In my opinion there are 3 things to have in order to be a successful organization consistently. 1st, you need a QB. The Dolphins do not have one. John Beck is probably not the answer. He's adequate at best. Adequate doesn't win you championships, unless you're really good at the other two winning components. 2nd, you need an offensive line to protect your precious QB, and there's not a more important cornerstone for an O-line than the left tackle. 3rd, you need a great pass rusher or two. There's not a better defense than one who can rush the passer. You think the New York Giants are in the Super Bowl because of Eli Manning, like the flip flopping media is talking about? No, Eli just didn't mess it up. It was the NFL's leading sack unit that got them there. Eli suddenly didn't become Peyton Manning. A great pass rush will even eliminate your weaknesses in your defensive secondary. The Giants don't have any "shutdown" corners. What they have is an awesome pass rush coming from the defensive line.

Having giving you my opinion for building a great football team, let's get back to the draft. You know Dorsey is out. You know McFadden is out. Who's left you say? Here are the 3 guys I'm choosing between and in order, Boston College QB Matt Ryan, Michigan OT Jake Long, and Virginia DE (son of former NFL great pass rusher Howie Long) Chris Long. Those are my top 3 picks in the draft.

This past year, Ryan's senior year, he threw for 4,507 yards, 31 TDs, and 19 Int. Those may not be eye popping numbers but keep in mind that Boston College has almost no NFL prospects on their offense. Even big college football fans can't name one other player that plays offense on BC. I know I can't without looking it up. Another plus is he didn't play in an offensive system that is known to put up big stats. Did you know that Tom Brady threw for 2,217 yards, 16 TDs and 6 Ints in his senior season at Michigan? Not to say that Ryan will be Tom Brady. All I'm trying to say is that Brady didn't play on a team known to have their QBs put up big numbers. The spread offenses that almost every college team runs now days makes it harder to identify a true QB. But, I can tell you that BC is not known for running a spread offense. Another point I want to make about Ryan is had he played for USC, for example, everyone would be foaming at the mouth that he's the next great QB and no way would he not be drafted at the number 1 slot. It's the truth.

Going along with my formula for success, Jake Long would be the next best choice. He's the kind of left tackle that will be playing 10-12 years and will protect your QB for a long time. The argument for taking Jake at number 1 over Ryan is that it's harder to miss with good offensive tackles. Let's do a little draft review of the first offensive tackles taken off the draft board other than me just telling you. 2007: Cleveland Browns took Joe Thomas with the 3rd pick (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). 2006: The NY Jets took D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the 4th pick, still the starter. In 2005 New Orleans Saints took Jammal Brown with the 13th pick (selected to 2006 Pro Bowl). In 2004 the Oakland Raiders took Robert Gallery with the second pick, starter but is considered a failed pick and has since been moved to offensive guard. In 2003, Carolina Panthers selected JORDAN GROSS with the 8th pick, still a starter. In 2002, the Buffalo Bills selected Mike D. Williams, who is no longer on the team and is considered a bust. In 2001 the Arizona Cardinals selected Leonard Davis, who signed with the Cowboys in 2007 (selected to 2007 Pro Bowl). You see. Only one bust out of the last 6 drafts. That's good odds. So The Dolphins can play it safe and take Jake Long and it wouldn't be a bad choice. Chances are he'll be the staple of the line for years to come.

The 3rd player, according to my formula, is Chris Long. He played for a Virginia defensive scheme that is not designed to get great sack numbers from individuals but yet he still finished his senior season with 14 sacks. Chris Long is a can't miss prospect. He's got the bloodlines and the numbers. He's been in the NFL world his whole life because of his dad. Howie Long, I have no doubt, has taught him how to be a professional. He's been taught right and he's a gifted pass rusher. If by chance the Dolphins select Chris Long, he will make current Dolphin's DE Jason Taylor's job that much easier and the Dolphins defense better instantly.

It all boils down to this for Dolphin GM Jeff Ireland and VP Bill Parcells. If you want the safe picks, it will be either Jake Long or Chris Long. If you want a "probable" franchise QB, you'd have to take Matt Ryan. Either way those picks are winners in my book and worth the kind of money you'd have to pay them. If they believe in John Beck, then it's time to choose between the Longs. If not, you have to take Matt Ryan. There you have it. It's that easy. Now if I only had Bill's phone number.



Super Bowl XLII prediction: Patriots beat the Giants 28-24 in the highest TV rated Super Bowl in history.